tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70990242024-03-11T15:59:22.774+14:00Indo-Pacific Monitora B-Copy.com ProjectUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3501125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-88490319911453832462018-04-07T18:53:00.000+14:002018-04-07T18:53:26.251+14:00More On Beijing's Fitzcarraldo Complex<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-F9ujoyK6d2U/WshC3P7Ml9I/AAAAAAAALgs/VWMrQqDItugLD_1Dnl7xOd4cxxTGVgiNQCLcBGAs/s1600/fitzcarraldo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="982" height="376" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-F9ujoyK6d2U/WshC3P7Ml9I/AAAAAAAALgs/VWMrQqDItugLD_1Dnl7xOd4cxxTGVgiNQCLcBGAs/s640/fitzcarraldo.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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It really must be Throwback Thursday if they're all talking about the Kra Canal again</h3>
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<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/thailands-kra-canal-chinas-way-around-the-malacca-strait/">Thailand’s Kra Canal: China’s Way Around the Malacca Strait | The Diplomat</a> (6 April): A summary of the history of the idea and its current context within China's Belt & Road Initiative. While the canal can solve Beijing's "Malacca Dilemma," it could create bigger ones for Bangkok<br />
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<a href="http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/china-pushes-plan-for-canal-to-reshape-indian-ocean-118040600034_1.html">Fears rise in India as China pushes plan for canal to reshape Indian Ocean | Business Standard News</a> (6 April): India's Navy is, shall we say, concerned. As of now the Malacca Dilemma prevents China from having a sustainable military presence in the Indian Ocean. A Kra Canal would drastically change that, and substantially reduce the effectiveness of the Himalayan buffer in any military confrontation between India and China<br />
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<a href="https://www.firstpost.com/india/thailands-kra-canal-project-is-chinas-masterplan-to-secure-beijings-interests-assert-influence-in-asean-indian-ocean-region-4420647.html">Thailand's Kra Canal project is China's masterplan to secure Beijing's interests, assert influence in ASEAN, Indian Ocean Region - Firstpost</a> (6 April): A look at the costs and potential economic gains from the project for Thailand reveal a likely sucker's bet. Robbing business from neighbors will make for sour relations, and both tourism business and internal stability in the Isthmus will be negatively impacted. The primary benefits of the project are geopolitical (for Beijing), not economic (for anyone, really) </div>
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<a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/national/30341668">Mixed reactions to Kra Canal project - The Nation (Thailand)</a> (25 March): Business and government elites continue to debate the project. Some ex-generals seem to love it, while admirals don't. Meanwhile, “Prayut told me that the right time has yet to come”<br />
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<a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Canal-That-May-Never-Be.html">The Oil Canal That May Never Be | OilPrice.com</a> (15 March): While support for the project is growing, a look at the potential raw numbers show that any profit would be a long way off. </div>
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<a href="https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/search?q=kra+canal" target="_blank">Our previous coverage of the Kra Canal project including original articles (link)</a></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-81009078779752412292018-03-05T19:55:00.000+14:002018-03-06T06:30:59.531+14:00Freedom of Action <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z199dEj0gBM/WpzFw_IOT-I/AAAAAAAAKv0/mrmSYhsumIUawxdNamJ-1tPjSDDST3puQCLcBGAs/s1600/ximao.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z199dEj0gBM/WpzFw_IOT-I/AAAAAAAAKv0/mrmSYhsumIUawxdNamJ-1tPjSDDST3puQCLcBGAs/s640/ximao.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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As #XiJinping moves to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/04/eight-signs-that-xi-jinping-was-planning-to-cement-his-grip-on-china?CMP=share_btn_tw" target="_blank">complete his consolidation</a> of the Chinese State, the most "Critical Battle" may be for legitimacy</h3>
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<a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-president-xi-jinping-removal-term-limits-9997962">Xi Jinping's unsettling approach to governing modern China - Channel NewsAsia</a>: Xi's move to end term limits is but the latest step in a series of measures to transform the Chinese political system, moving away from the consensus-based leadership model adopted after the Cultural Revolution. It will also make understanding what is going on inside the power structure much more difficult<br />
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<a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2135425/can-china-avoid-sliding-back-strongman-politics-xi">Can China avoid sliding back into strongman politics as Xi Jinping reshapes charter in his own image? | South China Morning Post</a>: While the Core Leader will have more freedom to achieve long-needed policy reforms aimed at debt and corruption, it also increases risks for Xi himself: <i>“If power is highly concentrated in one person’s hands over the long term, then any time serious problems arise, as for example from the slowdown of the economy which is likely in the next few years, then the one person will have to accept responsibility for everything”</i><br />
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<a href="http://www.atimes.com/fear-mongering-xis-term-limit-removal/">Fear-mongering over Xi's term-limit removal | Asia Times</a>: Western apprehension over the change is misguided as it's aimed at strengthening Xi's ability to better effect domestic reforms. <i>'Xi has had some success combating corruption, reducing poverty and pushing back US “threats,” and thus is seen as the leader who could effectively navigate the difficult problems facing China in the years ahead. Corruption, though reduced, is still rampant. The demographic issue created by the one-child policy threatens to undermine economic growth. Improving the environment and structural supply reform (reducing industrial overcapacity) are easier said than done because of resistance by local governments and state-owned enterprises'</i><br />
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<a href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/xi-jinping-and-grip-party">Xi Jinping and the grip of the party - Lowy Interpreter</a>: More than anything else, the move removes the division of labor between the Chinese Communist Party and government bureaucracy, further undoing the Deng legacy. Whether the new model works as well as the old remains to be seen. <i>"Under Xi, his critics complain, the technocratic expertise in the bureaucracy has often been sidelined in favour the diktats of the central party command. Quite apart from the threat of a dictatorship re-emerging in China, Xi’s critics see this latest decision has chipping away further at the ability to make policy free of crude politics"</i><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-75735213517927591162018-02-19T11:11:00.001+14:002018-02-19T11:11:36.572+14:00Vanaajube's Teapot: More Trouble in the #Maldives<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h7KecRGpdxE/WonVopqO3WI/AAAAAAAAKuE/Zp6aBcre2SgKmyBp4o7uA_Ub-g1YV0H7ACLcBGAs/s1600/teapot.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h7KecRGpdxE/WonVopqO3WI/AAAAAAAAKuE/Zp6aBcre2SgKmyBp4o7uA_Ub-g1YV0H7ACLcBGAs/s640/teapot.jpg" /></a></div>
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After a previous flare-up in <a href="https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/search?q=maldives">late 2015/early 2016</a>, New Delhi has again been called to intervene to save the Maldives from mercenary proxies. A different regional context suggests caution</h3>
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In the latest bad news, the Yameen government has started to round up people, <a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/maldives-politics/maldives-police-arrest-25-after-protest-demanding-leaders-arrest-idINKCN1G2019" target="_blank">arresting 25 persons without charge</a> under a state of emergency that was declared earlier this month, after the Supreme Court ordered the release of nine opposition figures. Protests across the archipelago have attracted thousands, while former president Mohamed Nasheed, ousted by the current government in a 2012 coup as a bitter reward for bringing global attention to the special plight the nation faces from climate change, has appealed for outside help. <a href="https://raajje.mv/en/news/27139" target="_blank">Nasheed contends</a> that the Yameen regime's impunity is not the only problem – they have also made the country vulnerable to becoming a base for terrorism, as well as falling victim to China's "debt trap" exploitation under their neo-mercantilist Maritime Silk Road initiative. The crisis is <a href="https://avas.mv/en/44963" target="_blank">slamming the brakes</a> on the country's substantial tourism income.<br /><br />The Maldives' traditional savior has been India. The last time New Delhi had to intervene was <a href="https://scroll.in/article/867736/operation-cactus-the-indian-military-was-asked-to-intervene-in-the-maldives-20-years-ago-as-well" target="_blank">in 1988</a>, during a coup which in many ways had peripheral connections to the ongoing civil war in Sri Lanka. The government that India saved, the longtime technocratic plutocracy of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was succeeded by Nasheed in 2008, in the nation's first open vote in 30 years. Resentful over the loss of their sinecures, <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/12/02/commentary/world-commentary/maldives-politics-greed-trump-climate-change/#.WoneYZM-dTZ" target="_blank">associates of Gayoom led the coup in 2012</a>. And while Gayoom maintained a level of allegiance to New Delhi, and preceded Nasheed in calling for sustainability, his associates have not been so faithful. <div>
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<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/maldives-crisis-beijing-faces-tough-choices-180214122439606.html">Maldives in crisis: Beijing faces tough choices | Maldives | Al Jazeera</a>: China's economic connections to the islands have been deepening since 2011, a prologue to their becoming yet another link in the Maritime Silk Road's String of Pearls. As such, the current unrest puts Beijing on the spot: do they support a crackdown, thus reinforcing the region's anxieties about the true character of The Belt And Road Initiative, or do they show restraint and risk losing the confidence of more willing (and generally authoritarian) partners?<br />
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<a href="https://www.thenational.ae/world/asia/china-factor-deters-india-from-maldives-intervention-1.705660">'China factor' deters India from Maldives intervention - The National</a>: In the new context, the current crisis represents another friction point between New Delhi and Beijing. Both sides continue to maneuver around tensions in the Himalayas over the recent Doklam dispute. Is it really time to open up another front?<br />
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<a href="https://www.deccanchronicle.com/360-degree/180218/navigating-the-maldives-crisis.html">Navigating the Maldives crisis - Deccan Chronicle</a>: A military option for New Delhi is probably off the table. India has to portray themselves as the "good guy" working in support of a rules-based order. Soft Power represents an opportunity for effecting a positive solution, especially since the Maldives is very dependent upon tourism from regional neighbors.<br />
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<a href="https://swarajyamag.com/world/the-maldives-crisis-what-is-at-stake-for-china-and-india">The Maldives Crisis: What Is At Stake For China And India? - Swarajya</a>: Beijing's position on the crisis has been evolving. Early on they made calls for regional neighbors to respect the Maldives sovereignty and stay out of the crisis; now, they're offering to step in and mediate themselves. Meanwhile, New Delhi views the situation from a perspective based on the Doklam experience. While their answer will probably fall short of military intervention, it will still be an assertive one, and draw a distinct line that Beijing should not cross.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-14238780260759355002018-02-02T09:49:00.000+14:002018-02-02T09:49:18.258+14:00#Bangladesh as Rising Star in The #Jihadi Franchise<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h9_J4mqt_UY/WnJ6VyTTx-I/AAAAAAAAKog/Y6gUCHPnN8gZLD5ZnrXM7mvtAC5SMHnEwCLcBGAs/s1600/dakatakrs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-h9_J4mqt_UY/WnJ6VyTTx-I/AAAAAAAAKog/Y6gUCHPnN8gZLD5ZnrXM7mvtAC5SMHnEwCLcBGAs/s640/dakatakrs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/rohingya-insurgents-no-choice-but-to-fight/4196765.html" target="_blank">Rohingya crisis</a>, Global Takfiri <a href="http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/south-asia/2017/12/24/al-qaeda-calls-bangladeshi-muslims-wage-jihad-myanmar-army/" target="_blank">retrenchment</a>, and <a href="https://www.justsecurity.org/51664/international-community-address-impunity-bangladesh/" target="_blank">political legacies</a> of Bangladesh's Liberation War all play a part in the nation's emerging status as a terror exporter</h3>
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<a href="https://www.eurasiareview.com/01012018-bangladesh-relentless-response-analysis/">Bangladesh: Relentless Response – Analysis – Eurasia Review</a>: This unabashedly pro-government view, while praising counterinsurgency efforts post-Dhaka, nevertheless concedes the the insurgency continues to adapt with changing tactics, technology, and message, particularly capitalizing on the Rohingya plight<br />
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<a href="https://theprint.in/2018/01/04/growing-jihadist-threat-bangladesh/">The jihadist threat from Bangladesh is real and growing - ThePrint</a>: the neoconservative view through an Indian lens - both diaspora and domestic controls are factors in militants taking home grievances beyond foreign borders<br />
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<a href="https://lawfareblog.com/political-islam-and-islamist-terrorism-bangladesh-what-you-need-know">Political Islam and Islamist Terrorism in Bangladesh: What You Need to Know - Lawfare</a>: Christine Fair explains that despite Western perceptions, Bangladesh has been from its beginnings shackled to a bitter and often violent political struggle between a post-Marxist establishment and an Islamist opposition, expressing itself in a series of military coups, and growing corruption and impunity. In other words, the seeds of insurgency have always been there; we just haven't noticed them before<br />
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<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/bangladeshs-new-generation-of-militants/">Bangladesh’s New Generation of Militants | The Diplomat</a>: Islamist insurgency in Bangladesh has steadily evolved towards transnationalism since the 2000s. Now with the ascendancy of Daesh, there is an increasing tactical focus on martyrdom<br />
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Previous coverage of Bangladesh:</h3>
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<a href="https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2016/05/bangladesh-power-vacuum-abhors-peace.html">Bangladesh - A Power Vacuum Abhors Peace | Indo-Pacific Monitor</a>:<br />
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<a href="https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2016/07/dhakaattack-daesh-extends-franchise-to.html">#DhakaAttack: #Daesh Extends Franchise to Established Terror | Indo-Pacific Monitor</a>:<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-44931684029726566502018-01-22T19:21:00.000+14:002018-01-22T19:21:28.418+14:00The Hoover Maneuver: Codependency and the Inter-Korea Talks #korea #unification<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Together Again For Another Wild Ride?</td></tr>
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<br /><br /><b>Hoovering: 1. v. To vacuum a floor or rug; 2. v. Being manipulated back into a relationship with threats of suicide, self-harm, or threats of false criminal accusations. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_abuse" target="_blank">Relationship manipulation</a> often associated with individuals suffering from personality disorders like Borderline Personality Disorder or Narcissistic Personality Disorder</b><div>
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<b>Pyongyang plays Seoul's heartstrings with yet another Olympic romance. Can it be real this time? Friends and family offer little hope</b></h3>
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<a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/analysis--the-challenge-of-turning-inter-korean-thaw-into-longer-term-detente-9849468">The challenge of turning inter-Korean thaw into longer-term detente - Channel NewsAsia</a>: If it's real, it's going be hard going. The North has already balked at mention of her nuclear program, threatening to walk. Washington's stridency isn't helping as the South endures a painful <i>deja vu</i>: <i>"There are few signs to suggest that this time is any different, but it is still too soon to tell"</i><br />
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<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-s-agenda-behind-inter-korean-talks">China’s agenda behind inter-Korean talks - Lowy Interpreter</a>: Beijing, at least on the surface, is more optimistic about reconciliation. They've actually been facilitating a Track Two of sorts between the Koreas for a while now. China has three goals in overseeing this latest round of family therapy: bolstering support for a "double suspension" of Northern Nukes and US-Southern military exercises; reasserting leverage over Kim; and keeping Washington on the back foot<br />
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<a href="http://www.manilatimes.net/inter-korea-talks-will-lead-us-negotiations-nkorea/374582/">Will talks lead to US negotiations with NKorea? - The Manila Times Online</a>: Frank Ching points out how all roads lead to Pyongyang; they've set the rules. They've succeeded in getting US-led defense exercises postponed, and they want them eliminated. Until that happens, the door remains closed to Washington. It's up to Moon to make Kim see the Big Picture<br />
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<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/what-experts-think-of-the-inter-korea-talks/">What Experts Think of the Inter-Korea Talks | The Diplomat</a>: Christopher Green, Van Jackson, Tim Shorrock, and Harry Sa walk into a bar and discuss the latest Joseon household drama. Only one of them holds out hope<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-43461037464679638412018-01-10T10:26:00.000+14:002018-01-10T10:26:04.781+14:00Japan - China Relations: The Infinite Hedge<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wa3DdrbyTN0/WlOw3IPIaeI/AAAAAAAAKmE/ICx2R5Vp3yA2MYiFKFEiLckh3GocxDu2QCLcBGAs/s1600/xiabe.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wa3DdrbyTN0/WlOw3IPIaeI/AAAAAAAAKmE/ICx2R5Vp3yA2MYiFKFEiLckh3GocxDu2QCLcBGAs/s640/xiabe.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The emerging picture of the United States as <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/trumps-indo-pacific-dream-stumbles-china-alone-wont-fill-void/" target="_blank">a weak link in Asia</a> may have helped resurrect Shinzo Abe's Indo-Pacific Quad, but <a href="http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199937479.001.0001/acprof-9780199937479-chapter-5" target="_blank">bandwagons</a> still need to be <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/abe-sends-representative-to-invite-xi-to-japan-again/" target="_blank">balanced</a></h3>
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<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/japan-ready-quad-opportunities-challenges-tokyo-changing-indo-pacific/">Is Japan Ready for the Quad? Opportunities and Challenges for Tokyo in a Changing Indo-Pacific [War on the Rocks]</a>: Several political and diplomatic obstacles remain in the way of Kasumigaseki's full commitment to the four-party conference, apart from a flailing Washington. This includes continuing domestic opposition to expanding the scope of the SDF, effects of Beijing pushback, and the question of who picks up the slack if the US can't or won't reassert herself<br />
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<a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/c67ee1a118a1-focus-japan-china-to-mend-ties-on-tenuous-foundation-in-2018.html">Japan, China to mend ties on tenuous foundation in 2018[Kyodo]</a>: Much like India, Japan still has to balance economic ties with China with strategic imperatives. Both Abe and Xi have solid enough domestic support to work on strengthening the former with initiatives like joint Belt and Road projects. History is becoming less likely to force the latter, but there are still more than enough present concerns, not the least being North Korea<br />
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<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/12/25/commentary/japan-commentary/stop-pleading-xi-visit-japan/#.WlKyiVQ-dTY">Stop pleading for Xi to visit Japan [Japan Times]</a>: This year marks the 40th year of formal peace between China and Japan, making outreach a softer sell at home for Xi. Meanwhile, domestic politics drive Abe's pivot. Xi has more time on his side<br />
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<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2127069/can-tokyo-traverse-2018s-geopolitical-tightrope-between-beijing">Can Tokyo traverse 2018’s geopolitical tightrope between Beijing and Taipei? [South China Morning Post]</a>: Will the promise of Panda Bonds force the abandonment of an already well-developed relationship with Taiwan?<br />
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<a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2126878/japans-abe-keeping-enemies-close-offering-joint-africa">Japan’s Abe ‘keeping enemies close’ by offering joint Africa development projects to China [South China Morning Post]</a>: Preserving opportunities in Africa's Growth Ring are another motivation for rapprochement</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-35233164084814360562017-12-31T17:38:00.000+14:002017-12-31T17:57:45.758+14:00Better to Be a Dog in Days of Peace: a Look at 2018<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FgA_6gJfUFY/Wkfm7iAYQoI/AAAAAAAAKk4/FjFDE4U9QJcTa4xsY-Ft_X2pZOSPfGCwgCLcBGAs/s1600/dogyear.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FgA_6gJfUFY/Wkfm7iAYQoI/AAAAAAAAKk4/FjFDE4U9QJcTa4xsY-Ft_X2pZOSPfGCwgCLcBGAs/s640/dogyear.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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(links to original articles in red)<br />
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Overviews</h3>
<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2124787/chinese-politics-north-korea-economic-dark-clouds-watch-2018">Chinese politics, North Korea: the economic dark clouds to watch for in 2018 - South China Morning Post</a>: Talks with Kim regime going pear-shaped, blowback from Chinese pressure on foreign firms, challenges to Indian economic modernization, structural reforms in Japan, and Najib wearing out his welcome in Kuala Lumpur are the issues with major economic impacts as outlined by a report by consultancy Control Risks<br />
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<a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2125537/opinion-which-way-us-foreign-policy-2018-dont-look">Which way for US foreign policy in 2018? Don’t look to Trump’s national security strategy for answers - South China Morning Post</a>: The NSS reflects the White House ambivalence toward Beijing and Moscow and keeping the blinders on when dealing with North Korea. Lip service to quadrilateral cooperation simply isn't enough<br />
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China and Japan</h3>
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<a href="https://www.axios.com/china-7-big-things-to-watch-in-2018-2520690495.html">China: 7 big things to watch in 2018 - Axios</a>: Bill Bishop says it's all about the CPC's reassertion of power - military, sharp diplomacy, and trade abroad, and consolidation of social control at home<br />
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<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2126175/politicking-over-and-team-place-2018-when-chinas-xi-has-deliver">Politicking over and team in place, 2018 is when China’s Xi has to deliver on reforms - South China Morning Post</a>: 2017 was a successful year for Xi Jinping. He's consolidated power and gained China a greater global profile. Now he has to deliver on expectations at home - reducing economic uncertainty, inequality, and pollution. Good Luck With That<br />
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<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-faces-new-security-challenges-in-2018/">China’s Belt and Road Initiative Faces New Security Challenges in 2018 - The Diplomat</a>: BRI remains a primary tool for Xi to meet those economic expectations at home. It, and particularly CPEC, face major challenges from terrorism and the manifold political problems in South and Central Asia<br />
<a href="http://www.atimes.com/article/new-start-china-japan-ties-faces-big-obstacles-2018/"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />‘New start’ to China-Japan ties faces big obstacles in 2018 - Asia Times</a>: Shinzo Abe wants to strengthen economic ties, but sovereignty issues will provide inevitable obstacles<br />
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<a href="https://japantoday.com/category/politics/focus-japan%27s-defense-buildup-to-come-under-scrutiny-in-2018">Japan's defense buildup to come under scrutiny in 2018 - Japan Today</a>: North Korea crisis spurs exploration of deep strike capabilities, already a sore point with both opposition parties and certain neighbors<br />
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<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/12/28/commentary/japan-commentary/kurodanomics-2018s-biggest-question-mark/#.WkgBblQ-dTY">'Kurodanomics' is 2018's biggest question mark - The Japan Times</a>: The Bank of Japan will likely keep its foot on Japan's economic gas pedal, in the hope that the Abe government will see that the rapidly approaching light at the end of the tunnel is structural reform<br />
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South Asia</h3>
<a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-us-ties-2017-was-kabhi-khushi-kabh-gam-how-will-2018-pan-out/story-TmGYN5ucIfE3FypwnoUVcK.html">India-US ties: 2017 was ‘Kabhi khushi, kabhi gam’. How will 2018 pan out? - Hindustan Times</a>: The honeymoon will likely be over as immigration, trade, and Pakistan land on the table<br />
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<a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cant-change-indias-mentality-but-wont-close-door-of-cooperation-chinese-state-media/articleshow/62270326.cms">India-China relations: Can't change India's mentality on OBOR, but doors of cooperation open: Chinese media Times of India</a>: After Doklam, and realising that CPEC can't work without Indian quiescence, Beijing will offer a Thousand Flowers in 2018. Okay, so we'll have peace in the Mountains; but what about the Sea?<br />
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<a href="http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/pakistan-awaits-a-political-transition-1.2149282">Pakistan awaits a political transition - GulfNews.com</a>: Despite having put himself over a barrel, Nawaz Sharif isn't going away. The "Game Changing" CPEC and other purported economic successes are unraveling. Coming elections will likely be characterized by public disenchantment with the political class, leading to wins by populists like <a href="https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/12/30/sharifs-greed-becoming-national-threat-imran-khan/" target="_blank">Imran Khan</a> or the military<br />
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<a href="https://tribunecontentagency.com/article/elections-might-make-things-worse-for-afghanistan/">Elections Might Make Things Worse for Afghanistan - The Diplomat</a>: Past elections have led to less stability and more corruption. Unless genuine efforts at restoring public confidence are accomplished first, it will be more of the same<br />
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<a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmars-2018-foreign-policy-outlook.html">Myanmar’s 2018 foreign policy outlook | The Myanmar Times</a>: Balancing China and India will be difficult. But at least both want to help sweep the Rohingya crisis under the rug<br />
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<a href="http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2017-12-26/into-uncharted-waters.html">Into uncharted waters - The Kathmandu Post</a>: Nepal faces many challenges, not the least of which are ethnic divisions and economic pressure from the Belt and Road<br />
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Korea</h3>
<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/James-Stavridis/Will-there-be-a-war-on-the-Korean-Peninsula-in-2018">Will there be a war on the Korean Peninsula in 2018? - Nikkei Asian Review</a>: If Kim pulls an atmospheric test, James Stavridis says You Betcha<br />
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<a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/north-korea-in-2018-kims-scary-next-play-for-power/news-story/b91ec95c8a22b28a5c2e76527e0ac0a1">North Korea in 2018: Kim Jong-un may shoot missile horizontally - news.com.au</a>: A more likely scenario will be another missile test - this time to demonstrate terrestrial range<br />
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<a href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20171229000316">[Editorial] Still hopeful - Korea Herald</a>: South Korea continues to face strong regionally-based political divisions which will likely express themselves in June local elections. Moon will need to grow further into his job and lighten up on the payback<br />
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<a href="http://www.pulse.com.gh/bi/sports/sports-the-2018-winter-olympics-in-pyeongchang-might-have-a-new-problem-its-too-cold-for-everyone-id7787228.html">The 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang might have a new problem — it's too cold for everyone</a><br />
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Southeast Asia</h3>
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<a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/events-southeast-asia-watch-2018-0">Events in Southeast Asia to Watch in 2018 | Council on Foreign Relations</a>: Populism is on the march. Human Rights are in retreat. The Rohingya crisis, Daesh, and an equivocating Singapore as Asean chair are are just a few of the issues to deal with</div>
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<a href="http://www.dw.com/en/2018-will-be-dangerous-for-the-philippines/a-41958906">2018 will be ′dangerous′ for the Philippines - DW</a>: "Duterte has succeeded in making people believe that human rights are Western values and we have seen human rights and civil liberties pushed over the line." Is a Revolutionary Dictatorship in the offing? Will Maute regroup? Will capital fly out the window? Take a guess<br />
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<a href="https://www.todayonline.com/world/looking-ahead-2018-do-or-die-battle-najib-and-bn-father-all-elections">Do or die battle for Najib and BN in ‘father of all elections' - TODAYOnline</a>: It increasingly looks like Malaysia's ruling clique has taken clientelism too far for the public's taste. UMNO will likely win the election, but lose legitimacy<br />
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<a href="http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/12/25/expert-prospects-for-improved-asean-security-in-2018-grim/">Prospects for improved Asean security in 2018 grim - Free Malaysia Today</a>: A two-or-more-front counterinsurgency in Mindanao, with old faces and new, means the theater will become an Islamist Whack-A-Mole game<br />
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Australia</h3>
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<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/2018-is-shaping-as-a-danger-year-in-the-asiapacific/news-story/10c7ffeeaa5ae0f4f58c59a6321be53a">2018 is shaping as a danger year in the Asia-Pacific - The Australian</a>: Despite acknowledging risks from North Korea and China's Pacific expansion, Australia should continue to balance economic ties with China and security ties with US - As usual, the view from Murdoch is to stay where the money is. He might want to look to Japan to see how well that goes</div>
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<a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/12/27/what-to-expect-politics-2018/">What to expect from Australian politics in 2018 - The New Daily</a>: Everything is ace, right? Not really. The Coalition and Labour will both likely see more stumbles in 2018. Abbott and other figures on the Right will continue to stalk the government, the Greens will continue to stalk Shorten, and infighting will continue to hobble both sides. If the new budget forces Turnbull to renege on promised income tax cuts, expect an election<br />
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<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-07/politics-citizenship-scandal-looks-set-to-drag-into-2018/9233758">Parliament's citizenship saga looks set to drag into 2018 - AusBC News</a>:What started out as a novel way to undermine the other side has taken on a life of its own. It's not going away. If the Bogan constituency can be distracted, perhaps an amendment is in order?</div>
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<a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/australianz/some-economic-uncertainty-possible-political-turbulence-for-australia-in-2018">Some economic uncertainty, possible political turbulence for Australia in 2018, Australia/NZ News & Top Stories - The Straits Times</a>: The country's economic winning streak is being tempered by slow wage growth, high prices and China's own slowdown. Inequality is set to become a major political issue<br />
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New Zealand and Pacific</h3>
<a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/12/26/can-new-zealands-unlikely-coalition-deliver-in-2018/">Can New Zealand’s unlikely coalition deliver in 2018? - East Asia Forum</a>: Inexperience, lack of policy compatibility and legitimacy in the eyes of the public tend toward gridlock ruling the day in Wellington. Economic issues will hopefully provide common ground<br />
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<a href="http://hawaiipublicradio.org/post/pacific-news-minute-pacific-news-projections-2018-decolonization">Pacific News Projections for 2018: Decolonization - Hawaii Public Radio</a>: While New Caledonia is set for a referendum on independence this coming year, loyalty to the metropole will likely rule. Restiveness over sovereignty will also be an issue in US possessions. The struggle in West Papua will also gain a higher profile</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-64319178081083112832017-12-10T19:28:00.001+14:002017-12-10T19:28:28.457+14:00#SouthChinaSea : Working with what you got<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-unsGoZyn3uk/Wiy8Vy8SXHI/AAAAAAAAKiM/VMZrwLR5XZEBxhHWY4TRDm-hQ2BtPQGMgCLcBGAs/s1600/scsfighter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-unsGoZyn3uk/Wiy8Vy8SXHI/AAAAAAAAKiM/VMZrwLR5XZEBxhHWY4TRDm-hQ2BtPQGMgCLcBGAs/s640/scsfighter.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>China's increasing presence in the South China Sea has become the new normal. Now the focus, on all sides, is on keeping a sustainable foothold</b><br />
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[Titles in red are clickable links to articles]<br />
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<a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/ani-analysis-all-calm-in-the-south-china-sea/1202899">ANI Analysis: All Calm In the South China Sea?</a>: Some takeaways from the Bloomberg/Chatham House seminar at Lingan University in Hongkong on 1 December: next steps for Beijing likely include pressurizing other claimants for joint development, which may explain why she is willing to work with Asean on a region Code of Conduct. The question is how the Code, if it materializes, will affect future behavior [4 Dec]<br />
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<a href="http://www.interaksyon.com/south-china-sea-ph-envoy-sees-no-chinese-withdrawal-from-scarborough-despite-improved-relations-with-beijing/">SOUTH CHINA SEA | PH envoy sees no Chinese withdrawal from Scarborough despite improved relations with Beijing | InterAksyon</a>: Duterte's overtures to China are unlikely to quickly bear fruit with regard to Scarborough Shoal. But they may offer a foundation for a new approach by Manila to maintain a presence there [5 Dec]<br />
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<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/south-china-sea-militarization-fighters-in-the-paracels-and-combat-logistics/">South China Sea Militarization: Fighters in the Paracels and Combat Logistics | The Diplomat</a>: The military footprint in the Paracels is growing, as is US/Allied concern about it. Beijing is learning that they have concerns as well, though more practical ones: how to sustain such a far-flung outpost, and the limits to what can be based there [6 Dec]<br />
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<a href="https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/12/10/murky-problem-in-the-south-china-sea/">Murky problem in the South China Sea - Nation | The Star Online</a>: Part of any tangible cooperation between Beijing and Asean will have to deal with food security. The Code of Conduct will have to tackle illegal and unsustainable fishing, already a major problem in the area. Can China, let alone other parties, be held accountable? [10 Dec]<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-31943765266109960502017-12-05T11:20:00.000+14:002017-12-05T11:20:31.914+14:00#DPRK: Can We Talk? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kSppyc0zECs/WiWeRc3J4DI/AAAAAAAAKhY/JU8JIoKK7IQ16jbH1en7GgsOB7TEOjE0ACEwYBhgL/s1600/dprktalk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kSppyc0zECs/WiWeRc3J4DI/AAAAAAAAKhY/JU8JIoKK7IQ16jbH1en7GgsOB7TEOjE0ACEwYBhgL/s640/dprktalk.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><b>North Korea's newest ICBM test was accompanied by what some observers called <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-korea-ready-to-negotiate-if-us-recognises-it-as-nuclear-power-vjrc6227m"><span class="s2">signals of a willingness to talk</span></a> with the goal of ending the current crisis. Belligerent posturing on both sides has made it harder to divine the if, wheres, and hows of coming back to the table, but it must be done</b></span><br />
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<b>“What took North Korea so long?” <i>The</i> <i>Atlantic</i>, 28 November</b> It's highly unlikely that the DPRK's two-month silence was a diplomatic signal; the Kim regime has no interest in denuclearization under any circumstances. Historical patterns show the real reason for the pause between tests was most likely procedural. If they are willing to talk now, it's only because they've become confident in the development of their own capable nuclear deterrent as a balance against the US. If that's true, the second question is whether the US is will be willing to talk on new terms [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/north-korea-nuclear-program-missile-tests/546494/" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>“Let the record show: negotiations with North Korea work,”<i>(Jim) Lobe Log</i>, 29 November</b> the Trump administration has deliberately ignored past diplomatic successes, instead continuing with veiled threats of military action which forced the Kim regime to dig their heels in even further. But in reality there are no military options. A new start must be made keeping in mind the successes of the Clinton Framework. The question is, can we really turn back the clock? [<a href="https://lobelog.com/let-the-record-show-negotiations-with-north-korea-work/" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>"William J Perry: diplomacy only viable option to deal with North Korean crisis," <i>Asahi Shimbun</i>, 29 November</b> The former US Defense Secretary reveals Bill Clinton almost approved an offensive military plan against North Korea before deciding that the Framework was the best course of action. Today, North Korea's 20+ arsenal of nuclear weapons precludes any successful first strike by the US. Takeaway: the Trump administration's credibility has been erased by empty threats. [<a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201711290016.html" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>"Trump and Rational Accommodation," <i>Gwynne Dyer syndicated column</i>, 2 December</b> Trump’s pattern of threats has been evolving. What started out as apocalyptic rhetoric is contradicted by the lack of specific details and deadlines, and "his tone continues to soften." Have The Generals finally gotten to him? [<a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1370927/is-trump-twigging-to-rational-accommodationism-" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>“There is no military option to take out North Korean nuclear program," <i>The Hill</i>, 3 December</b> The current administration has limited itself to binary options, essentially tying its hands. While it is impossible to eliminate North Korea's nuclear arsenal without unacceptable consequences, there are still options that can be taken without threatening preemptive war. This includes evaluating options for addressing China's concerns [<a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/363012-there-is-no-military-option-to-take-out-north-korean-nuclear" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>“How long can North Korea withstand international pressure?" <i>The Hankyoreh</i>, 4 December</b> An editorial by a Chinese professor offers one possible signal from Beijing: that sanctions aren’t really working either, and are in fact reinforcing the legitimacy of the Kim regime in the eyes of North Koreans [<a href="http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_editorial/821942.html" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>"Have we got just three months to avert a US attack on North Korea?" <i>The Guardian</i>, 4 December</b> a former speechwriter for Ban Ki-moon argues Beijing should take the initiative and call in the UN [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/04/three-months-avert-us-strike-north-korea-nuclear-missile-kim-jong-un" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
<br /><b>"Madeleine Albright: how to protect the world from North Korea," <i>New York Times</i>, 4 December </b>to date, the Clinton administrations agreed framework represents the best success that we've had in dealing with the Kim regime. Reliance on direct military threats, or pressuring Beijing, has simply not worked [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/opinion/madeleine-albright-north-korea.html" target="_blank">Link</a>]<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-4846288649308261262017-11-15T10:24:00.001+14:002017-11-15T10:30:16.271+14:00Getting the #IndoPacific Wrong<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C6_Zq3sbtJM/WgtP8ICjIjI/AAAAAAAAKVY/alNBa3ZbZOUkyzYx98SejSv83U_aiGHcwCLcBGAs/s1600/inigo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="672" data-original-width="1197" height="358" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C6_Zq3sbtJM/WgtP8ICjIjI/AAAAAAAAKVY/alNBa3ZbZOUkyzYx98SejSv83U_aiGHcwCLcBGAs/s640/inigo.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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So, last week, <a href="http://www.pacificpundit.org/">Van Jackson</a> made us mad.<br />
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Referring to the Asia-Pacific as "Indo" reflects ignorance about regional dynamics, seduced by romantic ideas about convergence 1/2</div>
— Van Jackson (@WonkVJ) <a href="https://twitter.com/WonkVJ/status/927330776336568321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 6, 2017</a></blockquote>
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As It Turns Out, Jackson, a highly astute Asia Hand <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/van-jackson-talks-nuclear-tensions-on-the-korean-peninsula/">who has rightly made it his mission to articulate the US's history of mishandling North Korea policy in blunt terms</a>, is not alone. <br />
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The Trump administration's possible overuse of the term <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2012/12/a-term-whose-time-has-come-the-indo-pacific/">"Indo-Pacific"</a> has generated backlash from leadership in China and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/South-Korea-balks-at-joining-US-Japanese-Indo-Pacific-push">South Korea</a> as well. The US administration Keeps Using That Term, but the real question is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-indo-pacific/indo-pacific-not-from-where-china-is-sitting-idUSKBN1DA1YH?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner">do other players in the theater Think It Means what the US administration Thinks It Means</a>. Some accuse US policy of cravenly adopting the term in order to <a href="http://www.atimes.com/article/rhetorical-birth-anti-china-bulwark/">sublimate the role of China</a> in the region, or <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/wLwQOveps5YBxucpdM8joL/Its-finally-time-to-make-the-Pacific-a-bit-bigger.html">on bringing India into the picture</a> towards that end. Or it could simply be that Donald Trump, given his flopsweat performance in recent Asia summitry, has given <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/13/trumps-incoherent-message-to-americas-allies-in-asia/?utm_term=.4c2fa5d54a24">his reverse Midas touch</a> to the term. In any case, not even <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2017/11/14/trump-asia-trip/?utm_term=.4f60bcc0ba6a" target="_blank">Gurpreet Khurana</a>, the first strategist who coined the term's modern geopolitical use, agrees with how the US is using it.<br />
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As you can imagine, we find this all rather disturbing (see masthead, above).<br />
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"Indo-Pacific" has been used in biogeography since the 1970's, because together, the South Pacific and Indian Oceans for all practical purposes represent <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/umrsmas/bullmar/1990/00000047/00000001/art00002?crawler=true&mimetype=application/pdf">a vast, common domain of similar marine life</a>. As fish migrate, so do humans. Historically, these two oceans and their constituent lands also have a history of shared human cultural heritages. Chief among these are the spread of <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Buddhism-seen-fostering-core-bloc">Buddhism</a> and Asian <a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/indonesia-and-future-islam">Islam</a>.<br />
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Ethnic diasporas, such as from <a href="http://www.connectedtoindia.com/singapore-is-our-gateway-to-the-east-with-an-extraordinary-indian-diaspora-hci-jawed-ashraf-2730.html">India</a>, <a href="http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/article/2115736/chinese-indonesians-long-memories-and-escape-plans-case-racial-violence" target="_blank">China</a>, <a href="http://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/lifestyle/2017/10/27/philippine-japan-festival-2017-571613">Japan</a>, the Philippines, and the Pacific Islands, the result of migration driven by imperial fortune-hunting, or to <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/community/article/2118462/hong-kong-will-need-600000-domestic-helpers-next-30-years" target="_blank">work for better pay</a> and send the money home, or even to escape from <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2017/11/14/sustainability/island-nations-prepare-looming-future-without-land" target="_blank">sea level rise</a>, are also a permanent feature of the region.<br />
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These are threads which permeate South, Southeast (it wasn't for nothing that mainland Southeast Asia used be be called "Indochina"), and East Asia. The Indo-Pacific, as the nexus of the Indian and Western Pacific oceans, is where important things have always happened and will continue to happen at an increasing rate. The convergences are real - and Indo-Pacific Consciousness is about leveraging that convergence for engagement, not a false posturing of confrontation.<br />
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Rather than a sublimation of China, the emergence of Indo-Pacific Consciousness in international affairs is a reflection of China's reassertion of influence over her western periphery, such as with the <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1367767" target="_blank">Belt and Road Initiative</a> (BRI). But it's also a reflection of the <a href="https://www.adb.org/news/features/booming-south-asia-driving-economic-growth-asia" target="_blank">economic awakening of South Asia</a>, and of Australia <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/seeking-clarity-australian-foreign-policy-0" target="_blank">coming out of her shell</a> as a regional power, albeit with much <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/09/opinions/australia-refugees-politics-opinion/index.html" target="_blank">kicking</a>, <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/11/13/youre-nasty-piece-work-pauline-hanson-slams-hanson-young" target="_blank">screaming</a>, and <a href="https://www.popsugar.com.au/news/Australian-Citizenship-Crisis-Explainer-Details-44257153" target="_blank">gnashing of teeth</a>. If American policy continues in the direction of transactional (and l<a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/editorials/trump-s-zigzag-diplomacy-on-china-will-confuse-us-allies-in-indo-pacific-region/story-ml9Jo2jdTQRRYLZmnHLzFM.html" target="_blank">ikely toothless</a>) confrontation, it will reflect that as well.<br />
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It also reflects a hub of increasing connectivity generally, reaching out to Africa in one direction and America in the other. Is the ongoing chain of North Korea crises an issue for the Indo-Pacific? To the extent that the DPRK uses the center of that region to <a href="https://thewire.in/190910/mea-india-us-ties-sushma-swaraj-res-tillerson-north-korea-china-iran-rohingya-pakistan/" target="_blank">evade sanctions</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-malaysia-kim-court/month-into-trial-north-korean-masterminds-behind-kim-jong-nam-killing-a-mystery-idUSKBN1D30OO" target="_blank">act out internal power plays</a>, the answer is yes. South Korea may not see those connections, but <a href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/03/01/japan-s-indo-pacific-policy-pub-62929" target="_blank">Japan</a> certainly <a href="http://cimsec.org/india-japan-yen-closer-maritime-engagement/34674" target="_blank">does</a>. Is the <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2017/11/303277/naypyidaws-commitment-resolve-rohingya-issue-following-najibs-relentless" target="_blank">Rohingya crisis </a>an issue for Asean? Absolutely, and how they tackle it will define the future viability of that alliance.</div>
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So yes, Indo-Pacific Consciousness is A Thing. But it's also become clear that the US is Doing it Wrong.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-9909880527846932222017-11-07T11:11:00.001+14:002017-11-07T11:11:52.422+14:00Throwing The Game: Donald #Trump and #Democracy in #Asia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The best chance at balancing China's rising power in the region, which banks on <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/china-cambodia-infrastructure-myanmar-rohingya-trump-xi-jinping/543168/" target="_blank">the spread of illiberalism</a> and the <a href="http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/11/04/democracy-isnt-receding-in-southeast-asia-authoritarianism-is-enduring/" target="_blank">retrenchment of existing authoritarianism</a>, is through the promotion and <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/11/06/commentary/world-commentary/asia-pacific-democracies-new-entente/#.WgC-ChNSxTY" target="_blank">alliance of democracies</a>. Problem is, the current US Administration doesn't seem to be interested. Beijing benefits<br />
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<b>"Southeast Asia’s Democratic Decline in the America First Era," <i>Council on Foreign Relations</i>, 27 Oct</b> Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines have all slid into illiberalism, seemingly with Trump's acquiescence. Moreover, the rise and mien of these illiberal regimes are straight from Trump's own playbook [<a href="https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/southeast-asias-democratic-decline-america-first-era" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"5 Challenges Trump Will face in Asia," Center for American Progress 1 Nov</b> "So far, Trump and his team have explicitly disowned values and human rights as a part of U.S. statecraft. This will damage long-term interests by alienating beleaguered Asian democrats, who look on as the United States unilaterally cedes its soft power. Trump <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/02/remarks-president-trump-and-prime-minister-prayut-chan-o-cha-thailand">welcomed</a> Thailand’s military dictator Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to the Oval Office this fall and has repeatedly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/23/us/politics/trump-duterte-phone-transcript-philippine-drug-crackdown.html">praised</a> the violent, deadly, and extralegal campaign against drug use being executed by Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte. And the Trump administration has done little other than issue <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/09/11/statement-by-press-secretary-on-violence-burma">public condemnations</a> to attempt to stop Myanmar’s military from carrying out a genocidal campaign against the Rohingya people—a humanitarian catastrophe." [<a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2017/11/01/441991/5-challenges-trump-will-face-asia/" target="_blank">link</a>]<br /><div>
<br /><b>"If Trump Forgets About Human Rights in Asia, the World Will Suffer," <i>Foreign Policy</i> 2 Nov </b>"Unfortunately, Trump seems unlikely to address issues of democracy, human rights, and governance — his pattern of inviting autocratic, corrupt rulers to the White House is a testament of this. Thus far, his “America First” tagline translates to a more transactional foreign policy, with no room for standing up for human rights and democracy. And taking a sledgehammer to the State Department’s budget hasn’t helped either. It’s no surprise that 72 percent of Southeast Asians <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ASEANFocusMarApr17.pdf">believe</a> that the U.S. image has been tarnished in the region since Trump took office" [<a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/11/02/if-trump-forgets-about-human-rights-in-asia-the-world-will-suffer/">link</a>]</div>
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<b>"Asia is turning its back on democracy, and some say Trump isn’t helping," <i>Los Angeles Times</i> 3 Nov </b>“Trump has created a moral vacuum which China has moved to exploit, and to fill... they’re just much more sophisticated, and much more coordinated, about their foreign policy messaging than Trump is... China’s able to say, ‘We don’t care about your domestic issues, we just want to bring trade and prosperity’ — a Pax Sinica, with Beijing at the center,” he continued. “People who understand China know that it’s a lot more complicated — and one would say devious — than that. But we are losing the ability to say that this comes with a lot of human rights abuses, or moral externalities, so to speak.” [<a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-trump-bump-20171103-story.html" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-79994734456819456022017-10-30T10:49:00.001+14:002017-10-30T10:49:52.440+14:00Mountains of Lions & Dragons: the struggle to secure #CPEC<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xBu3xhKXYZU/WfY3J-Q-0VI/AAAAAAAAKSY/NdR8MyqM2cALtiC-yWgh24ioTdsl-3fOACLcBGAs/s1600/cpec.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xBu3xhKXYZU/WfY3J-Q-0VI/AAAAAAAAKSY/NdR8MyqM2cALtiC-yWgh24ioTdsl-3fOACLcBGAs/s640/cpec.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>China's <a href="https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101" target="_blank">grand plan to leverage the resources of South Asia</a> requires Pakistan to clean up its act on <a href="http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/labourers-attacked-grenade-china-pakistan-corridor/" target="_blank">regional stability</a>. Meanwhile, the neighbors offer a <a href="https://thewire.in/191753/india-open-japanese-push-quadrilateral-along-us-australia-counter-chinas-obor/" target="_blank">Bronx Cheer</a></b><br />
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<b>"WHY THE CHINA-PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR WILL WORSEN TENSIONS IN SOUTHERN ASIA," <i>War On The Rocks</i>, 28 Sept</b> Beijing has Islamabad convinced they both can use CPEC for economic advantage. Pakistan also sees a security advantage. New Dehli, along with both Pakistani minorities and regional players, see a threat. All are "more likely to feed a spiral of suspicion and hostility" than anything else [<a href="https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/why-the-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-will-worsen-tensions-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"Corruption, Not India, Is CPEC's Biggest Threat," <i>Forbes,</i> 3 Oct </b>Security concerns may exist but the more tangible threats are structural tendencies in both Chinese and Pakistani businesses and government toward padding and goldbricking. The resulting cost overruns will hobble Pakistan in debt and the IMF will likely hold Beijing responsible [<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2017/10/09/corruption-not-india-is-cpecs-biggest-threat/#1b87bb00f34f" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"Globalisation of Terror," <i>Pakistan Today</i>, 23 Oct</b> CPEC provides East Turkestan separatists with a new theater of operations against Beijing [<a href="https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2017/10/23/globalisation-of-terror-2/" target="_blank">link</a>]</div>
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<b>"WHAT DO YOU GET IF YOU CROSS PAKISTAN’S GAME OF THRONES AND CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD?" <i>South China Morning Post</i>, 28 Oct </b>Washington and New Dehli are united in their opposition to CPEC. Support within Pakistan for the initiative is hollow, and dalliances with insurgent groups hasn't helped. Beijing has let Islamabad's elites know they need to guarantee security if they want to get and stay rich [<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2117351/what-do-you-get-if-you-cross-pakistans-game-thrones-and-chinas" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-82332684464413627852017-10-23T11:20:00.002+14:002017-10-23T11:20:30.642+14:00#JapanElection: Abe Wins The gambit<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Jozkb0rfnaE/We0ADYYnI_I/AAAAAAAAKQ0/T9uBnz9Qcmoym0b_f6cHYwghfBjNwqYfwCLcBGAs/s1600/abewins.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Jozkb0rfnaE/We0ADYYnI_I/AAAAAAAAKQ0/T9uBnz9Qcmoym0b_f6cHYwghfBjNwqYfwCLcBGAs/s640/abewins.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /><b>"Where Japan's election results point the country's politics and economy," <i>Nikkei</i> 23 Oct </b>Abe has successfully fended off both opposition parties and LDP factions, clearing the way for Article 9 reform, more Abenomics, and own re-election [<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Where-Japan-s-election-results-point-the-country-s-politics-and-economy" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"Top opposition forces see contrasting fates after poll," <i>Japan Times</i> 23 Oct</b> So much for the Party of Hope; Constitutionalists will likely become leading opposition party, bringing long term changes to nation's politics [<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/22/national/politics-diplomacy/top-opposition-forces-see-contrasting-fates-poll/#.We0EjhNSxTY" target="_blank">link</a>]<br /><div>
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<b>"Japanese PM Abe’s election gamble pays off," <i>TRT World</i> (video)</b> The illiberal establishment view: North Korean threat, Demographic Bomb major issues in election [<a href="http://www.trtworld.com/asia/japanese-pm-abe-s-election-gamble-pays-off-11570" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b><i>Yomiuri</i>: Most of current cabinet will likely stay [<a href="http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0004019402" target="_blank">link</a>]</b></div>
<br /><b>Japan's Abe wins big, but could still lose," <i>Australian Financial Review</i> 23 Oct</b> Low turnout and general dissatisfaction with Abe still a factor; will CDPJ benefit in the long run? [<a href="http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/no-brexit-moment-for-japan-as-party-of-hope-fades-20171022-gz5sqn" target="_blank">link</a>]<br /><a href="mailto:?subject=Japan%27s%20Abe%20wins%20big%2C%20but%20could%20still%20lose&body=I%20would%20like%20to%20share%20something%20with%20you%0A%0Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Fno-brexit-moment-for-japan-as-party-of-hope-fades-20171022-gz5sqn"></a><div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-53261553416392427492017-10-16T12:28:00.000+14:002017-10-16T12:28:41.287+14:00#Cambodia, Lawfare State<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dcczZDgZiCU/WePYrA9CtGI/AAAAAAAAKPU/AVlaG-tfwKgfkIPnw3Fuj7BHHp5XLd_TwCLcBGAs/s1600/prayutsen.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dcczZDgZiCU/WePYrA9CtGI/AAAAAAAAKPU/AVlaG-tfwKgfkIPnw3Fuj7BHHp5XLd_TwCLcBGAs/s640/prayutsen.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brutal Buddies</td></tr>
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<b><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/cambodias-crackdown-what-happens-when-an-autocrat-shutters-a-newspaper/" target="_blank">Press crackdowns</a>, <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/1342843/cambodias-political-prince-submits-to-its-strongman" target="_blank">sweeping away</a> of opposition as Hun Sen consolidates power and helps build a bloc of illiberal, pro-China states in Southeast Asia. “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/13/crackdown-cambodia-exiled-opposition-mu-sochua" target="_blank">Whatever Mr Hun Sen wants, he gets. People are so fearful</a>”</b><br />
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<b>"Analysis: Cambodia’s government learns the art of ‘lawfare’," <i>Phnom Penh Post</i>, 9 Oct </b>Completely by the book, Cambodia's leadership swiftly legislates opposition out of existence. “What [Hun Sen] wants to say is that we use legitimate power . . . and if the law still has loopholes, we will draft some laws, because when we win, we can do whatever we want” [<a href="http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/analysis-cambodias-government-learns-art-lawfare" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"Cambodia heads towards one-party state – and a democratic crisis," <i>Asia Times</i>, 15 Oct</b> Rule by law, not of law: The CPP has continually snipped away at democratic protections since 1993. They maintain that only their continued rule can forestall a civil war. Except that their very action are destroying confidence in elections and the state [<a href="http://www.atimes.com/article/cambodia-heads-towards-one-party-state-democratic-crisis/" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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<b>"AS ANTI-US FEELING GROWS IN CAMBODIA, CHINA CASHES IN," South China Morning Post, 15 Oct </b>The crackdown is being accompanied by a wave of anti-US propaganda as China pours in replacement capital [<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2115277/anti-us-feeling-grows-cambodia-china-cashes" target="_blank">link</a>]<div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-86634954682787607472017-10-09T12:09:00.000+14:002017-10-09T12:19:36.786+14:00#Afghanistan: Not Another Vietnam - Yet<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S7t1YQsgUxE/WdqUscxLXcI/AAAAAAAAKN8/dnbj73mgLPwVof_f40zxAd_0DH_opfnyACLcBGAs/s1600/afghan.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S7t1YQsgUxE/WdqUscxLXcI/AAAAAAAAKN8/dnbj73mgLPwVof_f40zxAd_0DH_opfnyACLcBGAs/s640/afghan.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><b>Australia's commitment in Afghanistan to last 'decades' (<a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/10/05/australias-commitment-afghanistan-last-decades" target="_blank">link</a>)</b></td></tr>
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<b>The need for political justification of the Afghan War has robbed it of what is really required for anything close to victory - "nation-building" and regional integration</b></div>
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<b>"The New U.S. Commitment to Afghanistan Needs a Soft Power Strategy," <i>Forbes</i> 6 Oct</b> The real progress the country's institutions have made remains an untold story. But the job isn't finished, and these priorities should be increased and combined with regional integration (<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielrunde/2017/10/06/the-new-u-s-commitment-to-afghanistan-needs-a-soft-power-strategy/#48e971a75c53">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"(Canadian) Support for Afghanistan Urgently Needed," editorial, <i>Times Colonist</i> (Victoria, BC), 6 Oct</b> Justin Trudeau's withdrawal from Resolute Support, prompted by domestic politics and Trump statements on the war, comes at precisely the wrong time (<a href="http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/op-ed/comment-military-support-for-afghanistan-urgently-needed-1.23057807" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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<b>"Sixteen Years and Counting: The Afghan War Grinds On," <i>Stratfor</i> 7 Oct</b> Mattis plan will have positive impacts, but no solution without addressing India-Pakistan tensions - with a non-punitive approach (<a href="https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/sixteen-years-and-counting-afghan-war-grinds" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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<b>"Afghanistan: Another Victory for Tehran?" <i>Lawfare</i>, 8 Oct</b> Kabul's collapse is the last thing Iran wants. Daesh is especially a concern. The goal for them is to balance Kabul and the Taliban to increase influence in the country at Washington's expense (<a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-another-victory-tehran" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-39099516204335899252017-10-02T12:25:00.002+14:002017-10-02T12:25:59.216+14:00#Pakistan , Interrupted<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">He Broke It</td></tr>
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<b>"Is This The Pakistani Sunset?"<i> Northlines</i> 30 Sept</b> While running point in the US War on Terror, Pakistan laid down with any number of dogs, and now has too many fleas. Add in resentment over impunity and CPEC's increasingly hard sell, and now "The Writing is On The Wall" (<a href="http://www.thenorthlines.com/is-this-the-pakistani-sunset/" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"Pakistan’s Costly Plunge into China Debt," <i>Asia Sentinel </i>30 Sept </b>Speaking of CPEC: The wealth of the country's elites is still tied to London, so giving the store away to Beijing is no skin off their nose. The national economy and job base are another matter entirely (<a href="https://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/pakistan-plunge-china-debt/" target="_blank">link</a>)<div>
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<b>"Beijing has signaled. Is Islamabad listening?" <i>Daily Times</i> 1 Oct</b> Debt issues aside, CPEC could also be instrumental in weaning Pakistan away from fundamentalism and conflict with India (<a href="http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/01-Oct-17/beijing-has-signaled-is-islamabad-listening" target="_blank">link</a>)<br /><div>
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<b>"Confusion and indecisiveness," <i>The News</i>, 1 Oct</b> Islamabad has been too busy scratching those Afghan Policy flea bites (see above) to achieve any sustainable goals in mainstreaming their Pashtun lands; you'd think paying due diligence to one problem would help solve the other (<a href="http://tns.thenews.com.pk/confusion-indecisiveness/#.WdFlTEw-KRt" target="_blank">link</a>)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-51826076054623525172017-09-25T09:40:00.001+14:002017-09-25T09:40:33.855+14:00Losing Face on North Korea #DPRK #Trump #Dotard<br />
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Shooting off his mouth again, the American (p)resident's blustery war of words against the North Korean regime is blowing away whatever credibility he has left</h3>
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<b>"Poll: far more trust generals than Trump on North Korea, while two thirds oppose preemptive strike," <i>Washington Post</i>, 24 September</b> Already low approval numbers are cemented by Trump's reliance on personal insults over conventional diplomacy (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-far-more-trust-generals-than-trump-on-n-korea-while-two-thirds-oppose-preemptive-strike/2017/09/23/5cc4377c-9fbb-11e7-8ea1-ed975285475e_story.html?utm_term=.0f37867403d4" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"The Madman Theory of North Korea," <i>The New Yorker</i>, 2 October </b>It<b> </b>didn't work for Nixon; it isn't working for Trump either (<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/02/the-madman-theory-of-north-korea" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"What North Korea wants from the US," <i>Axios</i> 24 September T</b>he Kim regime sees the (p)resident's belligerence as empty threats to save face. Trump's generals are facepalming. What is really needed to avoid an accidental catastrophe is a concerted effort to get everyone on the same page and at the same table, without the headdesk (<a href="https://www.axios.com/what-north-korea-wants-2488452975.html" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b> "Kim Jong Un's dark warning,"<i> Lowy Interpreter</i>, 22 September</b> Trump appears to have no concept of the Asian concept of "face." Either that, or he doesn't care. The rhetoric from North Korea has actually been par for the course up till now; it's Trump's personal insults that are escalatory, playing into Kim regime propaganda, increasing tensions, and slamming the door to diplomacy (<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/reading-kim-jong-un-and-growing-pressures-war" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-21486876423514911672017-09-18T09:19:00.002+14:002017-09-18T09:21:39.361+14:00Bullet Trains and Bastions - #Japan and #India Come Together #Doklam<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n8uLWlEMY7s/Wb7Cd2a52BI/AAAAAAAAKJo/_MnCktU6nmA3Zd8pjYPNBcUbcUN2zFHQACLcBGAs/s1600/killpanda.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1199" height="358" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n8uLWlEMY7s/Wb7Cd2a52BI/AAAAAAAAKJo/_MnCktU6nmA3Zd8pjYPNBcUbcUN2zFHQACLcBGAs/s640/killpanda.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">original image @ Global Times</td></tr>
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<b>The alliance between India and Japan offers <a href="http://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2017/sep/17/zooming-into-future-a-bullet-train-into-the-very-centre-of-greater-asia-1658317.html" target="_blank">economic</a> and security benefits to both nations. Enough to have Beijing <a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1066832.shtml" target="_blank">grousing</a></b><br />
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<b>'How India and Japan rattled China with Act northeast policy' <i>DailyO</i> 17 Sept</b> Beijing's goal in South Asia is economic hegemony via CPEC to offset home debt and bolster food and border security. That makes Japan's infrastructure push in India all the more upsetting (<a href="http://www.dailyo.in/politics/india-japan-modi-abe-northeast-china-bullet-train/story/1/19560.html" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>'India, Japan and Africa' <i>Economic Times </i>16 Sept</b> The Asia Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) will provide the two nations with a means to counterbalance the Belt and Road Initiative while enhancing security ties. India provides "historical connections, maritime contiguity, and the large presence of an Indian diaspora." Japan provides capital and technology (<a href="https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/india-japan-and-africa/" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>'Growing India, Japan ties irk China' <i>Sunday Guardian</i> 16 Sept</b> 'Abe’s visit is a testimony to the fact China’s economic and military rise is bound to coalesce some of its neighbours against China. And this will happen regardless of the cultural impediments, ideological fixations and political hesitations in these countries. Japan as the only East Asian country with both the interest and the power to construct a regional balance of power to counter Chinese domination in the region, currently faces security challenges from both China and North Korea... Thus, any move that lends a hand to an increase in Japanese power is good for India' (<a href="http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/10908-growing-india-japan-ties-irk-china" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>'The lesson from Doklam: Peace is the dividend of power' <i>Hindustan Times</i> 16 Sept '</b>India and Japan must together provide the fulcrum for a broader regional coalition towards a “pragmatic equation” with China to meet hegemonistic designs of any nation in the region' (<a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/the-lesson-from-doklam-peace-is-the-dividend-of-power/story-Y84n3MeDBoqaIs7OEc1HUO.html" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-52914112205406647252017-09-11T10:11:00.000+14:002017-09-11T10:12:15.830+14:00#Japan 's Loyal Opposition - Bad Timing and No Traction at the DPJ<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MFFfLXURyA4/WbWRnWjCzTI/AAAAAAAAJ_w/FDD6L5kRUY8fITH4pZpp-4QX6OOKScG9wCLcBGAs/s1600/maehara.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1199" height="358" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-MFFfLXURyA4/WbWRnWjCzTI/AAAAAAAAJ_w/FDD6L5kRUY8fITH4pZpp-4QX6OOKScG9wCLcBGAs/s640/maehara.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The Democratic Party of Japan, intolerant of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a27eeec8-7299-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c" target="_blank">Renho's neophyte stumbles</a>, crawls back to mediocrity. Seiji Maehara has already made <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/politics/update1-up-and-coming-opposition-lawmaker-to-quit-party-over-reported-affair" target="_blank">stumbles of his own</a> despite supposedly knowing better. The ship <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/10/national/politics-diplomacy/democratic-party-lawmakers-unhappy-jcp-alliance-may-bolt-party/#.WbWPZq0UVTY" target="_blank">may already be sinking</a><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
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To the Japanese citizens! <br />
Can you expect of the ”民進党”?”<br />
Maehara new organization” is not gripable by Seiji Maehara.A product of compromise. <a href="https://t.co/KqqHDplw0e">pic.twitter.com/KqqHDplw0e</a></div>
— 🇯🇵Nicol Kuroda🇺🇸 (@hybrid_japan_us) <a href="https://twitter.com/hybrid_japan_us/status/904565713905475584">September 4, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
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<b>"39% don't have high hopes for new Democratic Party leader Maehara: survey,"</b> <b><i>Mainich</i>i 4 Sept</b> The DPJ's ideological split continues to hold it down in polls, despite Abe Cabinet's own dismal ratings (<a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20170904/p2a/00m/0na/012000c">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"Maehara stumbles over selection of deputy as DP braces for snap election," <i>Japan Times</i> 6 Sept </b>"Maehara’s about-face has put a question mark on his leadership ability as head of the DP, whose members often have failed to unite and have instead engaged in internal strife." And that was before Yamao blew up (<a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/09/06/national/politics-diplomacy/maehara-stumbles-selection-deputy-dp-braces-snap-election/#.WbWXSK0-JTZ">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"Democratic Party can waste no time getting its act together," <i>Asahi</i> 6 Sept</b> Maehara's penchant for poor judgment leaves his proteges vulnerable to backstabbing (<a href="http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201709060034.html" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"Maehara must ensure DP is able to govern," <i>Yomiuri</i> 8 Sept</b> A collection of insights on Maehara reveals more about Ishiba's designs on the LDP than anything else (<a href="http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003920600" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>Meanwhile, the real skinny is at Tokyo On Fire:</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NVoSnXWS5-k" width="560"></iframe></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-66058895522858268752017-09-04T09:11:00.000+14:002017-09-04T09:11:07.956+14:00"Toto, I have a feeling we're not in Grand Fenwick anymore" #DPRK<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gq0ICGw6fqY/WaxLRLkmi6I/AAAAAAAAJ3o/_9xCb7RIRuAhORPHPuG1YAU05MbHDRANACLcBGAs/s1600/kjutroll.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1199" height="358" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gq0ICGw6fqY/WaxLRLkmi6I/AAAAAAAAJ3o/_9xCb7RIRuAhORPHPuG1YAU05MbHDRANACLcBGAs/s640/kjutroll.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>'North Korea: Is it time to accept Pyongyang will remain a nuclear threat forever?'</b> <b><i>A(ust)BC News</i> 4Sep</b> It would appear that North Korea has finally achieved the nuclear deterrent it has worked so long for. Now they have to deal with the consequences of raising the stakes (<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-03/north-korea-is-it-time-to-accept-it-will-remain-a-nuclear-threat/8868138" target="_blank">Link</a>)<div>
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<b>'Getting Tough on North Korea: Iran and Other Mirages' <i>38North</i> 1 Sep</b> Unlike Iran, North Korea had far less to lose in its brinksmanship with the West. Given the state of its economy and goals of its regime, it was a foregone conclusion that sanctions would be less of a deterrent (<a href="http://www.38north.org/2017/09/jdethomas090117/" target="_blank">Link</a>)<br /><div>
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<b>'Kim Jong Un's Theory of Nuclear Victory' <i>Lowy Interpreter</i> 29 August </b>Kim's primary goal in developing a nuclear deterrent is regime survival. But is it possible, having seen the Trump administration's ineptitude and latent isolationism, that he is now looking for more? (<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/kim-jong-un-theory-nuclear-victory" target="_blank">Link</a>)</div>
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<b>'North Korea’s 6th Nuclear Test: Strong Tremor Felt in China' <i>The Diplomat</i> 3 Sep </b>Beijing may want to do some sentiment analysis before they continue to drag their heels in dealing with North Korea (<a href="https://tribunecontentagency.com/article/north-koreas-6th-nuclear-test-strong-tremor-felt-in-china/" target="_blank">Link</a>)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-19514739784692923452017-08-28T10:25:00.001+14:002017-08-28T10:31:51.941+14:00The Thomas Theorem Plays Out in #Myanmar #Rohingya #Genocide<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">So Much For That Other Religion of Peace</td></tr>
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Forced into a desperate corner, the Rohingya in Rakhine state are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-idUSKCN1B706O" target="_blank">fighting back</a>. The violence and exodus of refugees threaten to <a href="http://www.thedailystar.net/country/rohingya-crisis-befitting-reply-if-myanmar-creates-any-anarchy-says-border-guard-bangladesh-bgb-chief-1454818" target="_blank">draw Bangladesh into the conflict</a>. Meanwhile, Yangon <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/asia/terrorism-has-arrived-in-myanmars-rahkine-state-says-aung-san-suu-kyi-20170826-gy4pxa.html" target="_blank">cries Jihad</a>. "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_theorem" target="_blank">If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences</a>"</h3>
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<b>"The suffering of the Rohingya people is a stain on humanity's conscience," <i>The National</i>, 27 August </b>"The Rohingya people’s connection to Rakhine is older than Myanmar’s history as an independent republic." It's time they are recognized and the persecution stop. Both Myanmar and India are culpable in a tragedy that has the potential to spark a regional war (<a href="https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/editorial/the-suffering-of-the-rohingya-people-is-a-stain-on-humanity-s-conscience-1.623322" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"The differences blocking a solution to tensions in Rakhine State," <i>Frontier Myanmar</i>, 27 August </b>From Yangon's view, events earlier this month reveal how Muslim resistance has gradually militarized. They maintain extremists are leveraging the crisis, while they have struggled with local factions to solve it. (<a href="https://frontiermyanmar.net/en/the-differences-blocking-a-solution-to-tensions-in-rakhine-state" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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<b>"Is this the final confrontation for the Rohingyas?," <i>Dhaka Tribune</i>, 27 August</b> Scorched earth tactics by the Myanmar Army have precipitated a refugee crisis in Bandarban. The men from this exodus are increasingly filling the ranks of ARSA resistance (<a href="http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/south-asia/2017/08/27/final-confrontation-rohingyas/" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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<b>"Nobody's People," <i>Daily Star</i>, 28 August</b> What may be the last stand for the Rohingya has the potential to inspire Jihadist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia. Beijing's coddling has encouraged Yangon's "mindless behavior" (<a href="http://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news-analysis-nobodys-people-1455025" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-50706295974829483412017-08-21T10:56:00.000+14:002017-08-21T10:56:08.072+14:00Australia's Foreign Policy: Pikers Take a Holiday #auspol #trump #southchinasea #dprk <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8LLc9nnZlI/WZnmBk5xEaI/AAAAAAAAJ14/fNoGCyshnII-h52EuzGvJoHmTjPpDOwEgCLcBGAs/s1600/canberra.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1199" height="358" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V8LLc9nnZlI/WZnmBk5xEaI/AAAAAAAAJ14/fNoGCyshnII-h52EuzGvJoHmTjPpDOwEgCLcBGAs/s640/canberra.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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China, North Korea, and not least America's slide into default mode is forcing Australia out of her shell</h3>
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'<b>Out of the “Slipstream” of Power? Australian Grand Strategy and the South China Sea Disputes,' <i>ISDP Asia Paper</i>, June</b> China's activity in the South China Sea has changed the security dynamic in Australia's home region. Australia will have to spell out her interests, engage regional partners, and build a leadership role for herself. The alternative is a hedging cycle that will be emulated by neighbors and entrench the ongoing "Thucydides Trap" (<a href="http://isdp.eu/publication/australia-scs/?platform=hootsuite" target="_blank">link</a>)<div>
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<b>"Is Australia’s approach in the Pacific coming into focus (at last)?," <i>Lowy Interpreter</i>, 15 August</b> Turnbull's "Step Change" may be taking shape: "stronger economic cooperation; stronger cooperation in security; and stronger people to people links." (<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/australia-s-approach-pacific-coming-focus-last" target="_blank">link</a>)<div>
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<b>"North Korea, War and ANZUS," <i>ASPI Strategist</i>, 16 August</b> Despite tensions, ANZUS is still "joined at the hip" with the US with regard the threat of North Korean attack. Australia, New Zealand need to articulate options short of preemptive kinetic action in the meantime (<a href="https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/north-korea-war-anzus/" target="_blank">link</a>)<div>
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<b>"Down and Out Down Under: Australia’s Uneasy American Alliance," <i>Foreign Affairs</i>, Sep/Oct Issue </b>The Lowy Institute's Executive Director outlines how the ongoing Trump Show and China's attempts to buy influence is forcing choices. The better choice is to step up and pull more weight while America works on herself (<a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-08-15/down-and-out-down-under" target="_blank">link</a>)<div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-57436212367523938372017-08-14T10:40:00.001+14:002017-08-15T06:11:16.692+14:00Suddenly the #KraCanal is a thing again #OBOR #RCEP<div>
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<b>Beijing & Friends are weaving mixed signals about Fitzcarraldo's dream again. </b><b>The repercussions of a possible Kra Canal also highlights how Beijing leverages Chinese overseas investments for soft power purposes even when their success is based on conflicting outcomes, such as with Malaysia's East Coast Rail Link and Sri Lanka's Colombo Port City. M</b><b>ost likely, however, the current talk is aimed mainly at bringing Malaysia and Singapore to heel </b></h3>
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<b>"Belt & Road Not a Cash Machine," <i>Global Times</i> 9 August</b> Ding Gang outlines the political and technical complexities of such a project, casting doubts on its sustainability. Yes, we quoted Global Times. Maybe the article gives some deniability to China with regard to current speculation, but it also spotlights the perception of OBOR as a gravy train by some overenthusiastic partners<br />
<a href="http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1060487.shtml">http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1060487.shtml</a></div>
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<b>"Ambitious Thai canal would link Pacific and Indian oceans," <i>Nikkei Asian Review</i> 10 August</b> Despite an estimated $50 Billion cost and apparent political reluctance, this article breathlessly outlines the perceived gains. Project boosters, including retired Thai generals, Chinese academics, to make their case in late September<br />
<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/285210">https://asia.nikkei.com/print/article/285210</a><br />
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<b>"Mind games at Doklam," <i>Indian Express</i> 11 August</b> While mainly dealing with the Doklam/Sikkim standoff, article cites the likely empty threat of a Kra Canal as a means to pressure Singapore<br />
<a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/mind-games-at-doklam-standoff-india-china-sikkim-standoff-trijunction-4792691/">http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/mind-games-at-doklam-standoff-india-china-sikkim-standoff-trijunction-4792691/</a></div>
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<b>"Beware China's great game," <i>Free Malaysia Today</i> 11 August</b> Malaysia is about to get herself in hock to Beijing by building the East Coast Rail Link. If the Kra Canal were to actually become a thing all that debt will be for nothing<br />
<a href="http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2017/08/11/beware-chinas-great-game/">http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2017/08/11/beware-chinas-great-game/</a><br />
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<b>UPDATE: </b><br />
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<b>"The Kra Canal: Double Bypass," <i>Lowy Interpreter</i> 14 August</b> David Brewster outlines the regional winners and losers if a canal ever actually gets built, with special attention on how it dovetails with Sri Lanka's maritime initiatives<br />
<a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/kra-canal-double-bypass">https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/kra-canal-double-bypass</a><br />
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<b>Our previous coverage of the Kra Canal: </b></div>
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<a href="http://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2015/02/canals-and-client-states.html">http://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2015/02/canals-and-client-states.html</a></div>
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<a href="https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2017/01/with-enough-shovels-kra-canal-revisited.html">https://b-copysf.blogspot.com/2017/01/with-enough-shovels-kra-canal-revisited.html</a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-27731423042516447882017-08-07T10:57:00.001+14:002017-08-07T10:57:42.435+14:00#ASEAN Down But Not Yet Out in the #SouthChinaSea<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XoF7whkIEn8/WYd5zvJpl3I/AAAAAAAAJzo/nrn4NZBTrcgDMm6mo_FFhgkKx_G-JepMwCLcBGAs/s1600/asean2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="779" data-original-width="1090" height="456" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XoF7whkIEn8/WYd5zvJpl3I/AAAAAAAAJzo/nrn4NZBTrcgDMm6mo_FFhgkKx_G-JepMwCLcBGAs/s640/asean2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>With the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-asean-philippines-southchinasea-state-idUSKBN1AM0IR?il=0" target="_blank">Framework</a>, Multilateralism gets thrown a bone. But the clock is ticking</b><br />
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"Asean Relevance in the Balance," <i>Philippine Daily Inquirer</i>, 4 August</h3>
After 15 years of trying to achieve a multilateral agreement on the South China Sea, Asean's Framework a "consolation prize" from China (<a href="http://opinion.inquirer.net/106082/asean-relevance-balance" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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"China scores diplomatic coup in South China Sea row," <i>Financial Express</i> 6 August</h3>
Philippines, Laos, Cambodia led way in "watering down" statements of concern (<a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/china-scores-diplomatic-coup-in-south-china-sea-row/796965/" target="_blank">link</a>)<br />
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"Gritty Talks Ahead as China, Asean Agree to Avoid Mishaps in Disputed Sea," <i>Voice of America</i> 6 August</h3>
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The devil is in the details, which have yet to be figured out (<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/asean-south-china-sea/3974373.html" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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"Water Wars: China Displays Diplomatic Skill and Military Might," <i>Lawfare</i> 6 August</h3>
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As Asean figures out how to fill in the Framework, China will keep on building (<a href="https://www.lawfareblog.com/water-wars-china-displays-diplomatic-skill-and-military-might" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7099024.post-44464153575591562112017-07-31T18:34:00.000+14:002017-07-31T18:52:54.343+14:00翻墙软件: Plugging Holes in the #GreatFirewall #Apple<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NmCG_gZ3_7c/WX6kKF2dZMI/AAAAAAAAJys/lz3vthxyJTYu6GwbB4TLBU35KSejU_-AQCLcBGAs/s1600/wallminions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1200" height="360" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NmCG_gZ3_7c/WX6kKF2dZMI/AAAAAAAAJys/lz3vthxyJTYu6GwbB4TLBU35KSejU_-AQCLcBGAs/s640/wallminions.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Staying Busy (original photo: Xinhua)</td></tr>
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<br />The latest attempt by China to bring free communication over the internet to heel is the <a href="https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/8545-2/?lang=en" target="_blank">long-awaited ban on VPNs</a>, and <a href="https://www.hongkongfp.com/2017/07/30/apple-aiding-chinas-censorship-efforts-says-vpn-company-software-removed-chinese-app-store/" target="_blank">Apple is now taking heat</a> for removing VPN apps from its Chinese iteration of the App Store. Given the nature of internet technology <a href="http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/anyone-can-download-apps-from-the-us-app-store-here-is-how/" target="_blank">there will likely still be workarounds</a>. As <a href="https://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/3014569/russia-passes-bill-to-officially-ban-proxies-vpns-and-yeah-privacy-in-general" target="_blank">Russia follows suit</a>, China's move may prove to be an unsettlingly popular precedent</h4>
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Apple values profit over human right since it removed VPN services from China app store because of the pressure from Beijing regulators. <a href="https://t.co/LC68iLRLs4">pic.twitter.com/LC68iLRLs4</a></div>
— Joshua Wong Chi-fung (@joshuawongcf) <a href="https://twitter.com/joshuawongcf/status/891864772177784832">July 31, 2017</a></blockquote>
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"Making sense out of Apple's VPN pullout in China,"<i>Khaleej Times</i> 30 July</h3>
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The ban is squarely aimed at individuals, and corporate institutions will still have access. "Killing that privilege off would be akin to giving a gut punch to business" (<a href="https://www.khaleejtimes.com/technology/making-sense-out-of-apples-vpn-pullout-in-china" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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"‘IT’S A GAME OF WHACK-A-MOLE’: OVERSEAS VPN SERVICE PROVIDERS GAIN AS CHINA TIGHTENS CONTROL ON INTERNET USE," <i>South China Morning Post</i> 29 July</h3>
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Orders for offshore VPNs have skyrocketed. As the number of Chinese net users continues to grow, so will VPN use despite ban (<a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/society/article/2104494/its-game-whack-mole-overseas-vpn-service-providers-gain-china" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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"Apple’s capitulation to China’s VPN crack-down will return to haunt it at home," <i>TechCrunch </i>30 July</h3>
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In complying with China's request to remove VPNs from its App Store Apple has handed Beijing and other despots a powerful precedent - possibly at the expense of market share in China and elsewhere as well (<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/30/apples-capitulation-to-chinas-vpn-crack-down-will-return-to-haunt-it-at-home/" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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"Apple sets course for China policy minefield,"<i>Reuters Breakingviews</i> 31 July</h3>
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As the company builds a corporate presence while moving into the online service market in China, it faces the same hazards that ultimately pushed out Facebook and others (<a href="https://in.reuters.com/article/us-china-apple-vpn-breakingviews-idINKBN1AG054" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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"Apple's VPN Ban In China Is Not The End Of The World," <i>China Tech News</i> 31 July</h3>
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Really, all you have to do is enter the certificate details yourself. Or maybe switch to Android (<a href="https://www.chinatechnews.com/2017/07/31/25274-apples-vpn-ban-in-china-is-not-the-end-of-the-world" target="_blank">link</a>)</div>
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<b>Plus: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuEdYvQmVFg" target="_blank">ADVChina: VPN ban will drive foreigners from China</a></b><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0