Analysis: Four Master Narratives in South and East China Seas Conflicts

(openbriefing.org)

With tensions mounting this year, Wikistrat, a crowdsourced consultancy, asked more than seventy Wikistrat analysts in June 2014 to run a crowdsourced simulation, which was just released earlier this month. The Wikistrat simulation identified four key factors driving instability in the East and South China Seas: 1.) the increase and interaction of regional nationalism; 2.) the aptitude of negotiators and the course of international diplomacy; 3.) the desire to control offshore resources; and 4.) the ongoing regional arms buildup. 

Examining these four factors, analysts predicted four separate scenarios (or “Master Narratives”) for stability and instability in the contested waters of the East and South China Seas.

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