Ed Lee's Reelection Chances and Airbnb

Mayor Lee has an unprecedented record on job creation and reducing unemployment. He has passed an Affordable Housing Trust Fund, prioritized the revitalizing of public housing, and done more than any local mayor ever in California to reform the state Ellis Act. His overall record of accomplishment would seem to make any potential political challenge pure folly. 

But here’s how politics actually works: 

Next June, the media reports on a wild party on a once quiet street in the Outer Sunset. It turns out that the party occurred in a house rented year round to tourists. Neighbors have been complaining about late night taxicabs and drunken singing for months, and the party was the last straw. The media starts covering similar incidents around the city. 

A Facebook page is soon created where people can post Airbnb horror stories. The feeling starts to grow that this Airbnb legislation has done exactly what Dianne Feinstein predicted, which is to “destroy” the quiet enjoyment of the city’s neighborhoods. 

A ballot measure emerges to change the short-term rental law. It is backed by landlords, tenant groups, and prominent moderates like Feinstein. State Senator Mark Leno has entered the mayor’s race and strongly backs the initiative. 

Suddenly, the November 2015 election is no longer about Mayor Lee achieving an economic miracle in Mid-Market. Or about his building more affordable housing, investing in neighborhoods, or ensuring cleaner sidewalks and streets. 

No, the November 2015 election instead becomes about saving our neighborhoods from year-round tourist rentals. The accompanying ballot measure restricting the Airbnb law would come to define the differences between candidates. 

Dianne Feinstein presided over the “Manhattanization” of San Francisco. When someone with her background expresses fear that the Airbnb legislation will “destroy” San Francisco and change the city’s character, politicians should listen. 

Many San Franciscans are upset about skyrocketing housing prices. They see the city becoming a home for only the affluent and the subsidized poor. They recognize that no mayor can regulate housing sale prices, or control rents on vacant apartments. 

But some will look at the Airbnb legislation and ask why the mayor backed legislation that even Dianne Feinstein believes will raise housing costs while reducing supply.

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