If city progressives can see fit to alter their tactics and cease frontal assaults on the same windmill every few years, they'll be in for perhaps the most daunting battle of all — against this city's demographic trends.
The legions of left-leaning young people who nearly carried Gonzalez to Room 200 in '03 are gone. The city has grown wealthier, more entrepreneurial, and busier. The progressive voters who could devote the time it takes to participate in local politics while earning a living in this city are now doing so in another, cheaper city.
The Chinese vote in San Francisco, meanwhile, has tripled in the last 20 years, and 80 percent of registered Chinese voters are homeowners. They skew older. That means they pick up the phone. That means they have phones, and homes in which to plug those phones into the wall. All of this bodes poorly for progressives. But it gets worse.
When Gonzalez nearly toppled Newsom 11 years ago, only around one-third of voters mailed in their ballots. In recent years, that percentage often exceeds two-thirds. Around 60,000 fewer San Franciscans cast a vote this year than four years ago — and almost the entire difference was in election-day voters.
So, the progressive strategy of rallying emotionally charged voters to turn up on election day offers ever-diminishing returns. This vein has dried up.
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