Has Consensus at All Cost Broken ASEAN?

Emphasizing unity at the table in the face of intransigence by China proxies may have been the wrong approach

Normally, when one bargains in Asia as elsewhere, one starts by insisting on a complete entitlement. The extent of the 498-page judgment, and the precedent it provides, could easily have underpinned such a strong position among ASEAN, at least initially. But at the very first encounter, ASEAN made concessions to Beijing: “Whatever you want to pay, if anything, that’s fine by us.” 

The ASEAN statements, agreed with Beijing, called for activities in disputed waters to be demilitarised, highlighted the importance of freedom of navigation, pledged more meetings to agree a code of conduct in the sea, expressed concern over reclamations, agreed to avoid inhabiting presently uninhabited islets, and urged more joint research and search and rescue co-operation. 

These points, positive though they are, do not require any noticeable change in policy or operations. 

Beijing publicly thanked Cambodia — its leading ally in ASEAN — for its support, crucial within the association’s consensus-based structure for preventing any criticism of China or mention of the arbitration judgment. 

Wang said the statement “was not against China”. He’s right there. The interesting question is the extent to which it plays against ASEAN’s credibility and its persistence as the cornerstone of the economic and strategic architecture of the region.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/rowan-callick/aseans-future-dim-after-weak-statements-on-china-sea-ruling/news-story/64f3298646d2dec6cdb6d30df97a0410

When asked about the intransigence of Laos and Cambodia, which is heavily dependent on Chinese aid and investment, Retno said that differences were not uncommon in ASEAN. “There will always be differences among countries and the decision is not likely to please everyone involved, but at least it showcases the earnestness of all member states in safeguarding their unity and ASEAN’s centrality,” Retno said. 

The communique is considered a step up from another joint statement adopted in an earlier retreat in February, when ASEAN foreign ministers agreed on respecting “legal and diplomatic processes.”
Separately, however, Yi commented on the international tribunal’s ruling on the South China Sea as “amounting to prescribing a dose of the wrong medicine [...] and it seems that certain countries outside the region have got all worked up, keeping the fever high,” he said, in apparent reference to the US.

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/07/26/asean-caves-china.html

While Monday's joint statement referred to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and freedom of navigation, Australian National University defence and strategic expert Dr John Blaxland said it was not the acknowledgment by China of the recent ruling that some countries wanted. "After such a significant ruling for there to be no mention of it, it is a palpable indicator of the powerlessness of ASEAN," Dr Blaxland told AAP on Tuesday. 

It also showed a "disturbing" push by China to continue pressing harder on the issue, by "ratcheting up the pressure" on those states, such as Cambodia and Laos, that are "effectively beholden" to it, he argued. 

While he noted ASEAN's statements on the South China Sea had been "circumspect" in the past few years, Monday's communication showed how little clout countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia had on the issue. "Their voices are shouted down. It's happened before, it has happened in other forums, but it confirms the trend," he said.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/07/26/asean-united-over-south-china-sea

With the bloc faltering in its response to the region's major security challenge of the day, analysts say it risks becoming a talking shop lacking in diplomatic clout. 

Staunch Beijing ally Cambodia has been accused of scuppering efforts by the bloc to unite in a call for China to abide by the tribunal's verdict. While most members want to keep pressure on China over its campaign of island-building in the contested water, they are wary of angering such a vital trading partner. "With Cambodia marching to its own drum the erosion of ASEAN solidarity is on display for all to see," regional expert Carl Thayer told AFP. 

Asked if Monday's statement had been watered down one diplomat involved in the talks simply said "we had to come out with a statement," adding "we don't want the world to say that ASEAN is in disarray." The decision is a boon to China and it quickly praised Cambodia - to whom it ladles out aid and loans - for holding out against fellow members. Beijing also thanked other staunch ally Laos for remaining "objective" during discussions.

http://www.brecorder.com/general-news/172/68972/