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2014/12/17

2014: A Year in North Korean Security




In response to the North Korean nuclear and ballistic missiles upgrades, South Korea, Japan and the U.S. pursued several initiatives during 2014. In terms of active defenses, South Korea has decided to upgrade its missile interception capabilities and acquire new systems, such as improving its currently placed PAC-2 interceptors as well as purchasing PAC-3 systems in 2015. These interceptors are more suited for targeting nonstrategic ballistic missiles that fly at a lower altitude; doubts remain about their ability to intercept strategic missiles.

To overcome this defense gap, in May 2014, the Pentagon proposed the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea. However, Seoul has voiced its preference for the development of its own ballistic missile defenses (BMD) system to intercept missiles at higher altitudes (above 40 kilometers). This BMD would likely be based on THAAD-compatible long-range surface-to-air missiles. For lower altitude missiles, South Korea is already developing the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD). Since its inception in 2006, KAMD has evolved to include PAC-2 systems, Aegis-equipped destroyers, and Green Pine radar systems. All this hardware is intended to be supported by the "Kill Chain" program – a set of domestically manufactured satellites that will support KAMD's missile launch detection capabilities. It is anticipated that this system will be operational in 2021.

Notwithstanding a previous agreement between Seoul and Washington for further interoperability between the South Korean and the U.S.-Japan BMD system, key stakeholders in South Korea have yet to acquiesce. This reluctance to accept a joint missile shield can be explained by the expense of a THAAD system, the likely Chinese reaction given the implications of a THAAD antimissile system for Beijing's own missile arsenal, and South Korea's troubled relations with Japan.





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