Asian Waters to Be Freshly Stocked With Lawfare in 2015

The Sierra Madre, in the South China Sea, on Aug. 9, 2013 (NYT)

There seems to be little doubt that the South China Sea will continue to be a hotspot in 2015. Bonnie Glaser argues that the Second Thomas Shoal may become the flashpoint of the New Year if the USS Sierra Madre slips off the reef and Chinese law enforcement vessels move in and take control of it. Zhu Feng argues that China is likely to return another oil rig to waters near Vietnam, reigniting 2014 tensions between those two countries.  

Ernest Bower argues, meanwhile, that ASEAN countries are likely to be increasingly vocal in their support for the Philippines in its international arbitration against China because South East Asian states’ trust in Beijing is wearing thin. Matthew Waxman notes that the arbitral tribunal may rule on whether or not it has jurisdiction to hear the case in 2015. Because jurisdictional issues are so intertwined with the merits of the case itself, this may take until 2016, however. Waxman also notes that as the arbitration proceeds, it may throw into sharp relief two problematic issues for the United States. The first is that when it comes to states’ sovereignty claims over contested land features, the United States claims neutrality. Its exhortations that the parties settle disputes through international legal mechanisms, however, increasingly mean that it must give at least implicit support to the Philippines, a treaty ally that is pursuing arbitration despite the fact that China refuses to do so. Another point of awkwardness is the fact that the United States itself has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and even though it treats its provisions as customary international law, its endorsement of UNCLOS-related arbitration may seem hypocritical.

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