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| (courtesy Pat Murphy and the San Francisco Sentinel. For more of Gavin phoning it in, see http://www.sanfranciscosentinel.com/?p=20254) |
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s announcement Monday that he won’t run for the Senate next year was clearly a de facto declaration for governor in 2018.
“It’s always better to be candid than coy,” Newsom said in a Facebook post. “While I am humbled by the widespread encouragement of so many and hold in the highest esteem those who serve us in federal office, I know that my head and my heart, my young family’s future, and our unfinished work all remain firmly in the State of California – not Washington, D.C.”
With billionaire Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa chomping at the bit, Newsom’s statement opened the door for Attorney General Kamala Harris to declare her intentions, and it appeared late Monday that it would be a go.
It’s a bit of an overstatement to say that the Senate seat is Harris’ if she wants it, but not much. Her expected entry makes her the clear frontrunner and puts the pressure on Steyer and Villaraigosa to fish or cut bait.
Clearly she would prefer to be the sole Democratic candidate. Were there to be a slew of Democrats, it would give a single Republican candidate, whoever it might be, a chance, under the top-two primary system, of facing the Democratic frontrunner in a runoff.
It’s even very remotely possible that if enough Democrats run and divide the vote, two Republicans could wind up facing each other. That’s what happened in a strongly Democratic congressional district in 2012.
Back to Harris. Were she to waltz into the Senate, Brown would appoint her successor as attorney general, and his choice would tell us who he wants as his own successor.(Dan Walters - Sacramento Bee)
By Sunday evening, California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom had made up his mind: He wanted to be governor, not senator. But when he tried to call the biggest obstacle to achieving his political ambitions, state Attorney General Kamala Harris, Newsom got her voice mail.
As of Monday afternoon, the two Democrats still hadn’t spoken. But Newsom, who had left a message with Harris outlining his intentions, went ahead anyway and announced on Facebook that he wouldn’t be running for Senate in 2016.
Newsom’s withdrawal capped a furious 72 hours of discussions among the would-be candidates and their advisers over whether to jump at the state’s first open Senate seat in two decades, or hold out for a shot at leading a state that is the world’s eighth-largest economy.
In announcing his plans, Newsom, 47, got out ahead of Harris, 50, who has told friends that she is also interested in the job of governor. Instead, on Tuesday, she will launch a campaign for Boxer’s seat, knowing that if she hesitated, it would appear that she was reluctant to choose the Senate over the governorship. In doing so, she will circumvent a race against Newsom; it has long been assumed that they would avoid a titanic clash that would leave one of them badly wounded, their hopes for higher office potentially derailed.
The power play by Newsom, and Harris’s quick reaction, was the latest chapter in a long-running drama between the two leaders of California’s next generation of political heavyweights. For over a decade, the pair have been on a slow but seemingly inevitable collision course — a journey that has its roots in San Francisco, a city that treats its politics like sport.
Tom Steyer, the top Democratic campaign donor last election cycle, spent more than $74 million trying to elect more environmental candidates to the Senate. He didn't get much for his money. Perhaps that's why he's buying domain names like “Steyer for Senate” as he considers running for office himself.
The billionaire former hedge fund manager is expected to decide in the next few days whether he will run to replace Senator Barbara Boxer, who is retiring from her California seat in 2016. Steyer has also considered running for California governor in 2018's open race.
He should do neither. The climate movement is much better off if he stays the course, supporting environmentally friendly candidates.(The New Republic)
(Antonio Villaraigosa) would be the biggest-name candidate from Los Angeles — the largest media market in the state and home to millions of voters — and the most prominent Latino to run, a demographic advantage that nods to one of the fastest-growing voter groups in the state.
"If he decided to run for senator, he would be very much a tier one candidate on all fronts ... on the policies, his history, his experiences, his name recognition," said Maria Elena Durazo, vice president of the UNITE HERE union and a powerful labor voice. "A Latino winning the Senate seat from California would be a very powerful message to send."
But Villaraigosa's prospects are mixed. He has alienated some key constituencies, lugs personal baggage and would probably face stiff competition from candidates who regard him as a has-been from a previous generation.
Villaraigosa grew increasingly unpopular among his own city's voters during his tenure as a two-term mayor. And he has suggested repeatedly in recent years that he would prefer to run for governor in 2018.
Even some loyalists appeared stunned by his interest in the Senate, which he announced by releasing a statement over the weekend.
"Too many Californians are struggling to make ends meet, pay the bills and send their kids to college. They are looking for progressive leaders in Washington who will fight for them, like Sen. Boxer has done for over 20 years," the statement said.
"… It would be an honor to serve Californians again in the future. The urgency of the needs of the people of this great state have convinced me to seriously consider looking at running for California's open Senate seat," it said.
Villaraigosa did not respond to requests for an interview. But several analysts said his interest in the race showed shrewd political calculation.
Whoever takes the plunge will need lots of cash. California has long been one of the most expensive states in the nation to campaign due to its huge population and multiple media markets, and political campaigns’ prices have risen exponentially in recent years with the advent of super-PACs.
On top of that, California’s new “jungle” primary system — where the top two candidates advance regardless of party — has proven to be a money suck in other races, as everyone has to spend heavily to try to make it through both rounds.
Strategists are predicting the race will be the most expensive in history, with some mentioning $1 billion in total spending as within the realm of possibility, depending on who runs.
“That's one thing the new primary system has brought us — an incredible extra expenditure of money, which is unfortunate,” said Miller.
That could also yield some surprises. A pair of Democrats could advance to the fall election if no Republicans mount a serious bid, scrambling campaign strategy; a primary race to the left could quickly flip to a focus on independents for both candidates.
(The Hill)
"If one and only one Republican makes this race, he or she is almost certain of a runoff slot," wrote Thomas Elias this week in the Californian. "And if a slew of Democrats get in against two Republicans, both Republicans could advance to November, guaranteeing the GOP an improbable Senate seat for six years."(Bloomberg)
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