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2015/03/18

#SouthChinaSea Update: Response is Growing, but still Tentative



At the 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) held in Langkawi, Malaysia, the ministers signed a joint declaration that reaffirmed their commitment to address common security challenges.
 
In the statement, seen by The Diplomat, the South China Sea did get a mention, with all parties underscoring “the importance of freedom of navigation in, and over-flight above, the South China Sea as provided for by universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea.”
(Diplomat)



MANILA - Magdalo party-list Rep. Ashley Acedillo has urged President Aquino to convene the National Security Council (NSC) over what he says is the "even graver danger" of China's massive reclamation activities in the West Philippine Sea. 
In a privilege speech late Monday night, Acedillo also criticized government's current tack in dealing with maritime disputes with China. 
“The avowed policy of government as regards the West Philippine Sea is highlighted merely by DFA’s Tripartite Action Plan heavily reliant on arbitration, diplomatic protest, and a collective ASEAN effort towards an enforceable Code of Conduct (COC). The Tripartite Action Plan is a no-action plant, unconsciously inviting disaster to befall our nation and unconscionably binding other agencies like the DND, AFP, the Coast Guard and others to futility. I urge the National Security Council, President Aquino sir, please convene already and tackle this impending existential threat to our country’s territory, sovereignty and economic well-being," he said. 
"Let us not be lulled into inaction by the pending verdict of the UN International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea over our claims in the West Philippine Sea," he added. "Some analysts fear that a major discovery of oil or natural gas may again spark another round of clashes in a region lacking the mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of such disputes - and with the United States providing merely mixed signals of either facilitating conflict resolution or an outright confrontation with China. The think tank International Crisis Group, in fact, believe that all of the trends are in the wrong direction, headed towards conflict, where the 'prospects of resolution are diminishing.' Those assessments bode poorly for the region, more so for our country." 
The Philippines has filed an arbitration case against China in connection with Beijing's incursions into waters claimed by the Philippines. 
China has refused to participate in the arbitration proceedings.
(ABS-CBN)

Among the activities Philippines and Japan will undertake are regular high level defense and military officials meetings. Philippine Navy and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force will conduct naval training this year based on Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea. 
Japanese Ministry of Defense-JSDF will also conduct capacity building assistance for members of Philippine Air Force. Both countries also agreed to explore possibility of cooperation in the area of defense equipment and technology.

Singapore has been a strong supporter of India’s increased engagement in the region through security forums, Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said in an interview on Monday after a meeting with Southeast Asian counterparts in Langkawi, an island in Malaysia. The group declared its commitment to the principle of no first use of force, he said. 
“We hope that their presence and participation will increase -- that really adds up to engagement and confidence building and mutual understanding,” Ng said, referring to Asia’s third-biggest economy. “India is a big country and it’s an influential country.”

India’s involvement in the region could give Southeast Asian nations a further buffer against China as that country seeks to enforce its claims to the majority of the South China Sea and push back against decades of U.S. military dominance in the Pacific. China is also looking to build a maritime trade route linking a network of ports through the Indian Ocean with Europe via the Suez Canal, a prospect that has unnerved India.
(Bloomberg)

India today said if the American "trumpet" was more "certain" in Asia-Pacific region where the two countries have shared interest, it would be helpful. 
The remarks, made by Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, came as US rebalances to Asia and Pacific by moving 60 per cent of its naval assets to the region by 2020. 
Identifying, Indo-Pacific region as an area of commonalities, Jaishankar said both countries can also act on it. 
He said the Joint Strategic Vision released during US President Barack Obama's visit had sought to capture the shared interest and convergences that India and the US has in the Asia Pacific region. 
"As a diplomatic posture point or perhaps as pol-mil point, I would also suggest that if the American trumpet was more certain in this region, it would be helpful," he said addressing a seminar at the Vivekananda International Foundation. 
Speaking of bilateral defence cooperation in the region, he said it was broadly moving in the right direction. 
"My sense is that, from an Indian perspective today, for us the fact that the US is both a source of supply and a military partner helps to create enough uncertainties that could actually strengthen security in Indo-Pacific region," he said.
(Business Standard)

China’s island-dredging is itself only a symptom of the real problem: a significant power vacuum in the South China Sea. 
The United States has largely reduced its presence in those waters over the past 20 years. While the overall capabilities of the U.S. Navy are increasing with each new ship, the newer, more versatile platforms are more expensive. In DoD terminology, the Navy has prioritized capability over capacity, with the result being the reduction by more than 20 percent in total Navy ships since 1995. Combined with demands on the U.S. Navy to be present in the waters around the Middle East, and the United States is left with fewer “presence days” elsewhere in the world. 
In terms of hard power, Southeast Asia’s littoral states’ maritime—navy and coast guard—capabilities are extremely limited. In addition, they are reluctant to take actions that would put them in direct opposition to China. The reluctance may be due, at least in part, to the fact that China is the top trading partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Even considering countries’ willingness to pursue their interests according to international law, the Philippines’ much-noted arbitration case (which was initially highly controversial among ASEAN countries) is only to determine what maritime features are contestable in court—not who owns them, but “can they be owned?”

Together, these factors leave a significant power gap in the South China Sea. While Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia are all increasing their spending on maritime assets, their efforts will need to be sustained for at least another decade to provide the countries with both the assets and the crews capable of sustaining presence in their claimed waters of the South China Sea. Mira Rapp-Hooper is right to highlight the need to expedite U.S. capacity-building efforts for maritime domain awareness. That said, China’s 35 years of economic growth, and 20 years of 10 percent or more annual growth in military spending allows it to fill the gap. If current trends continue, the future strategic landscape in the South China Sea will be considerably different, and unlike today, it will no longer be open to interpretation.
(War on the Rocks)

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