China Ending Its One-Child Policy Isn’t That Big of a Deal | The Diplomat

(In recent times) the policy was riddled with exceptions and loopholes. Many couples are already allowed to have two children: those who belong to ethnic minority groups, rural residents, couples where one parents is an only child (thanks the most recent update, announced in 2013). Families whose first child suffered from a disability (or, in some provinces, was simply a girl) were also allowed to have a second child. Plus, as noted above, the policy effectively never applied to the wealthy, as a fine was the enforcement mechanism. As Chang noted, the frequent moves of China's migrant population also meant that this population group (which counts over 270 million members) could generally have second or even third children without repercussions.The upshot may be that every family in China that wanted a second child has already had one. And, increasingly, Beijing is discovering that many people in China simply don't want a second child. When the one-child policy was relaxed in 2013, demographers predicted between 10 to 20 million couples were newly eligible to have a second child. But as of May 2015, less than 1.5 million couples had applied to do so.It seems unlikely, then, that this final move away from the one-child policy will spark a baby boom in China. The underlying issue is no longer about China's government stance on family planning, but about a social change in China: Beijing, like governments around the world, is discovering that a more urban, better-educated populace generally isn't interested in producing large families. China's low fertility rate – roughly 1.5 children per woman – won't be solved by scrapping the final remains of the one-child policy.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/china-ending-its-one-child-policy-isnt-that-big-of-a-deal/