Malabar 2015: Strategic Power Play in the Indian Ocean
As expected, China made its displeasure apparent, with the Global Times cautioning India against attempts at building an anti-China coalition in the Indo-Pacific region. Chinese analysts believe that India's "multi-vectored diplomacy" does not allow New Delhi the option of confronting Chinese military power in the Indian Ocean. Even so, India did raise the tempo of its participation in the Malabar, perhaps at the behest of the United States, whose deployment of the aircraft carrier (USS Roosevelt) and a nuclear attack submarine (USS City of Corpus Christi) subtly pressured New Delhi into sending the INS Sindhudhwaj (Kilo class submarine) and a P8 long-range patrol aircraft for the exercises.
More worrying for China was the inclusion of Japan in an India-U.S. naval exercise, a move some observers say revives the prospects of a "maritime quadrilateral." In its original avatar in 2007, the "quad" – consisting of the navies of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia – had drawn strong criticism from Beijing. So strident, in fact, had China's reaction been that to maintain cordial relations with Beijing India and Australia had been forced to clarify their position. Almost a decade later, however, growing PLA-N aggressiveness in the South China Sea seems to have reversed the consensus on keeping the peace with China.
Last month, the Indian Navy (IN) embarked on a much publicized week-long maritime engagement with the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) in the Bay of Bengal – the first meeting of the two navies for a bilateral operational exchange in the Indian Ocean. The composition of the participating contingents – especially the presence of a Collins-class submarine and a P8 maritime surveillance aircraft – suggested an anti-China focus. Significantly, the AUSINDEX was held within weeks of Australia's trilateral engagement with Japan and the U.S. in the Southwestern Pacific in July, raising the possibility of a potential alliance of democracies to counter Chinese military activity in the Indian Ocean Region.
Speculation about an emerging "security quartet" in the Asia-Pacific gained further momentum after the visit of the Australian Defence Minister Kevin Andrews to New Delhi in early-September. Addressing a public gathering, Andrews observed that the current Australian government was open to participating in a four-sided security initiative with the U.S., Japan and India, provided it were invited by New Delhi to do so. A few weeks later, Richard Verma, the U.S. ambassador, seemed to echo that sentiment when he urged New Delhi to assist the U.S. in securing the global commons – affecting a transition from "balancing power" to "leading power."
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