Martial Law in Thailand, Two Years On

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Drifting away from freedom and traditional allies in the name of stability and prosperity will likely yield neither

Thailand’s ruling generals have made clear they are not planning to yield control anytime soon. Initial plans to hold an election in 2015 were deferred until 2016, and are now deferred again until 2017. 

Their proposed draft constitution is fashioned to keep power in the hands of their allies in the traditional elite — using the courts and bureaucracy as their tools — at the expense of the voters’ political representatives. One provision could allow for an unelected prime minister — a concept many Thais believed dead and buried a generation ago along with military dictatorship. Another would see the junta remain in existence for five years after the polls for what is described as a “transitional period.” 

The draft charter will be voted on in an Aug. 7 referendum that amounts to the first measurement of public sentiment toward the military government. The exercise will be far from free and fair — campaigning for or against the draft is subject to nebulous rules that could land activists up to 10 years in prison. Even the sale of a “Vote No” T-shirt is considered against the law.

http://macaudailytimes.com.mo/analysis-junta-rules-thailand-no-end-sight.html

The charter calls for an appointed upper house with some seats reserved for the military and police. The junta says this is needed to smooth a five-year "transitional period" before full civilian rule is restored. 

However, the referendum, and a subsequent election, will do little to ease foreign investors' concerns, said an executive of credit rating firm Moody's, since the constitution is unlikely to resolve the issues polarizing Thailand.

"Political uncertainty has weighed on foreign direct investment and economic performance," said Christian de Guzman, a vice president of Moody's, whose "moderate" assessment of Thai domestic political risk ranks it the highest in southeast Asia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-politics-idUSKCN0YG1FM

In her statement, Yingluck said Thais were “suffering” as the economy dribbled along and questioned whether the junta had made good on a vow to heal the country’s political divide, a period often described by Thais as “the lost decade”. 

She urged the junta to swiftly return “the basic rights and freedom that will allow the people to once again choose their own destiny”. 

Yingluck was retroactively impeached by the military following their takeover and is on trial for negligence, a charge that could see her jailed for up to 10 years.

The military have promised to hold elections in the summer of 2017, but previous election pledges have slipped.

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2016/05/23/thais-suffering-says-yingluck-ousted-pm-slams-life-under-army-rule/

“Initially, there was relief that we had some law and order. Safety in the streets, no demonstrations. But at the expense of pent-up frustrations. And also at the expense of popular rule that people have come to expect.” 

“But two years is a long time in Thai politics. Now people are saying, ‘Yes, we had some law and order, to the extreme in fact, too much of it. People have been detained. There has been a lot of coercion, violations of basic civil liberties, at the expense of longer term stability.’ ”

“The way ahead is murky. Most worryingly, the coup makers do not have an exit strategy. And it looks the generals aren’t taking over for the future of Thailand and the Thai people, but for the generals themselves. So I think more people are seeing that and more people are showing dissatisfaction that is going to mount.”

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/05/22/asia-pacific/voices-thailand-reflections-two-year-coup-anniversary/#.V0Xb_2Nd3N4

It is believed the regime is seeking to expand defence ties with Russia and China and Europe, and reduce armament dependence on the US because of the latter's pressure on the military government.

Since seizing power two years ago, Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has led military top brass to China four times. He has visited Russia twice, once with the leaders of three armed forces and the other time with Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha has recently made visits to China and Russia to discuss defence deals.

"I came to Russia with seven cabinet ministers, which is unprecedented. It speaks volumes about Russia's importance," Gen Prayut was quoted as saying to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medevev during their meeting.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general/983809/us-frozen-out-of-defence-deals

In the past two years, the junta has been like a python squeezing its prey when it comes to freedom and democracy. Little by little, society loses basic civil rights such as the freedom to assemble, or the ability to hold critical debates about important matters. These are rights hard-won long ago which have been taken for granted for over three decades. The stranglehold on the prey is slow but firm. You can all sit and watch for another year or more as the repression continues if that’s enjoyable.

The bottom line is, young activists such as Ja New and his cadre, plus the United States and the European Union, won’t be able to save Thailand from the onslaught of militarization. Not if the majority of people upset by the repression just eat popcorn in the front row and watch the ongoing spectacle being played out by the junta, whose torture of language and logic being with its name: the National Council for Peace and Order.

http://www.khaosodenglish.com/detail.php?newsid=1463901751