Rodrigo Duterte is now President-elect of The Philippines, right in time for her turn as ASEAN chair. As the South China Sea controversy increasingly resembles a powder keg, along comes a leader who enjoys being seen as a loose cannon. But how explosive is he, really? There are indications that China especially sees him as more of a damp squib
Duterte’s foreign policy rhetoric suggests that under his Presidency, the Philippines could suddenly shift its position on the South China Sea crisis in a manner that would generate uncertainty, and weaken ASEAN’s ability to develop a common position against an assertive China. The Philippines will be the chair of ASEAN in 2017, and so Duterte’s position on the growing crisis in the South China Sea really matters. The problem is that his rhetoric is confused—on one hand he suggests a willingness to engage China bilaterally over the crisis in exchange for Chinese economic investment, on the other he proposes a multilateral roundtable discussion that China would oppose. And then there is loose talk of confronting China at Scarborough Shoal on a jet ski—the maritime equivalent of a shirtfront!
The shifting policy position of the President-elect is likely to reinforce the risk of miscalculation on both sides of the dispute and generate further provocations. The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague is currently assessing a crucial legal case presented by the Philippines against China on the issue of disputed territories in the South China Sea. Its finding is likely to be handed down in June, and could favour the Philippines. China is vowing that it will ignore the PCA’s finding, and in doing so, weaken legal norms such as UNCLOS. Duterte has indicated he’s not a strong supporter of international legal solutions to disputes stating: ‘I have a similar position as China’s. I don’t believe in solving the conflict through an international tribunal’. His stance could embolden China to be more assertive. Under Duterte, the dynamics of this crisis look set to change in China’s favour.
Diplomats can expect a different Duterte when he becomes president, according to his spokesman, Peter Lavina.
“You have to understand the Philippine style of elections. The context is most of our politicians need to communicate to our audience so many of our politicians sing and dance,” Lavina told reporters on Tuesday when explaining that the Singapore flag burning remark was a joke.
“Some make jokes, some make funny faces. Some dress outrageously. So it is all in this context that all these jokes, bantering, happen during the campaign. We don’t expect the same attitude of our officials thereafter.”
Lavina acknowledged there were “problems” with the US, Australian and — particularly — the Singaporean embassies.
“We need to send out personal envoys to open lines of communication and express openness to cooperate,” he said.
However on election night Duterte appeared to still be in campaign mode when asked if would seek to fix ties with the United States and Australia.
“I will not mend,” he said. “It is up to them if they want to mend their ways.”
The exiled communist leader also cautioned those calling Duterte as the 'Asian Trump'.
"Instead of analysing any kind of name-calling, I would rather test and find out soon how far he can serve the best interests of the Filipino people," Sison said.
"I give him the benefit of a doubt when I prefer to wish that he proves himself a true leftist like Hugo Chavez (former socialist president of Venezuela). I also enjoy much of his sense of humour but not necessarily all his jokes."
He also wants to take a more conciliatory approach toward China over the contested South China Sea, and has questioned the reliability of the Philippines' alliance with the United States.
That approach would be a huge shift from the policies of Mr Aquino, and could set back efforts by Washington to marshal its allies to counter Chinese activity in the strategically important area. The Philippines recently agreed to host a more robust US military presence after several decades of tense relations.
It is indeed critical not only for the Philippines but also for Asean to have an orderly and peaceful transfer of political leadership in the country. The Philippines will be the chair of Asean next year, when the association turns 50. It is important that the new president understands the need for regional leadership in a challenged Asean, whose unity is tested amid the contested claims in the South China Sea and where Manila has a stake to protect given its case against China in the international tribunal at The Hague.
The new president should, therefore, ensure that notwithstanding verbal bravura, there can be no room for complacency in order to avoid possibilities of economic, political and security shocks to the region. A peaceful and economically vibrant Philippines stands to benefit from deeper economic integration through the Asean Economic Community.
There will be concern in Washington, most pressingly in the development of new and mothballed US military bases required as part of United States President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia strategy that until now has relied on and received Filipino support — arguably at too great a cost. Duterte will be entitled to fight for a better deal for the country in relations with the US, but he has openly suggested that a deal with China over the disputed islands in the South China Sea could be more beneficial than being used as “Americas Pacific buffer”. While their politics may be different, this unpredictable new leader, and the timing of his rise, should worry the world much more than Trump ever could.
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