Peru Chooses Technocracy (Hopefully), Australian Aid, Modi's Expectations, and Festering Okinawa

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Indeed, in many ways, Fujimori and her party are a more natural match for PPK than his erstwhile allies on the left. PPK himself endorsed Fujimori in her unsuccessful first presidential run in 2011. But whatever efforts he makes to diffuse the tension, and however centrist his governing style turns out to be, political instability is a very real risk.

Since the fall of Alberto Fujimori, Peruvian elections have tended to be volatile, but stability has prevailed in the intervening years, despite a string of presidents with consistently low approval ratings. What’s different this time is that the left, which has not been a strong political force in Peru, has for once been mobilised to real effect.

The election has roused a new generation of traditionally apathetic voters, especially young ones, and after playing a big part in Keiko Fujimori’s narrow defeat, they may well take to the streets if they feel ignored. And all the while, low international commodity prices will put the country’s economic integrity at risk for some time to come.

https://theconversation.com/peru-election-democracy-looks-safe-but-an-era-of-stability-is-in-peril-60267

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So far the ALP has made a small pre-election commitment to increase aid by reversing the Coalition’s $224m cut in 2016-17. While a positive move, this is still heading in the opposite direction of the 0.5% of GNI target, as it is projected to result in a drop in aid from 0.25% of GNI in 2015-16 to 0.24% in 2016-17 and 0.22% in 2019-20.

In a nutshell, the Australian budget environment has changed dramatically since the two major parties made commitments to increase aid to 0.5%. In 2007-08 there was a 1.7% of GDP cash surplus, no net debt, no interest costs and total government expenditure was 23.8% of GDP. In 2016-17 there is a 2.2% budget deficit, interest costs are 0.7% of GDP and rising, and total government expenditure has risen to 26.2% of GDP.

While aid expenditure (even at 0.5% of GNI) is marginal in total budget terms, the tight budget margins and pressures to increase domestic social security, health and education expenditures make increases in the aid budget a hard sell at this time.

http://devpolicy.org/closer-look-budget-environment-australian-aid-20160606/

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The hurdles that deter Modi from breaking new ground on India-US relations are not the product of his personalised diplomacy: they are simply an outcome of the peculiar way in which the bilateral relationship has developed.

After the nuclear deal – truly an exceptional moment – New Delhi appears to be under the impression that a close, strategic partnership with the global hegemon will be the norm, especially on issues close to India’s heart. The United States, on the other hand, seeks greater convergence from India on the management of global regimes, with a view to constrain the rise of China. It is likely the Obama administration sees the Modi visit as its last effort to secure this “normative connect”. The grand bargain that has been struck – India and the US speaking the same language in cyber, climate and intellectual property right regimes, in return for tangible benefits to New Delhi – is not sustainable. India believes its economic growth and strategic rise can still be guided by the rules of the existing international order, but the US – through the TPP and Paris accord – has already proclaimed that these rules are past their shelf date.

http://thewire.in/2016/06/06/india-is-coming-up-against-the-limits-of-its-strategic-partnership-with-the-united-states-40403/

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Over the last seven decades, Americans and Okinawans have worked together, worshiped together and wed one another, forging a codependent community even as politics have cycled through episodes of confrontation and collaboration. 

But anti-base sentiment has been festering in recent years, fed by concerns over the environment, economy and crime, among other issues. In the aftermath of the homicide, many here are wondering whether the situation has reached a tipping point.

“We are at a new low,” said Robert D. Eldridge, an American scholar who has researched Okinawa extensively and served as a senior public affairs official for the Marines from 2009 to 2015. “In a nutshell, it’s unsustainable here ... operationally, strategically, fiscally and politically.”

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-okinawa-killing-0606-snap-story.html