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| Turnbull in a corner; looking over Abe's shoulder |
In both countries, the mainstream right may still be in charge, but both face steep challenges; Shinzo Abe and the LDP agenda will continue to be questioned and Malcolm Turnbull will still be fighting for political survival
Michelle Grattan on Turnbull's need to face the political enemies within:
The (Coalition's campaign missteps) mistakes were mainly his. In retrospect, it is clear his messaging was too “high end”. Too much of the “growth and jobs” mantra was about innovation and the new economy. He should have addressed a great deal better the worries and futures of those in the old economy...
But now the conservatives are trying to use the moment of Turnbull’s weakness to stand on his neck with a series of demands, including a greater role for one of their number, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, promotion of more conservatives, and changes to the superannuation policy. It was reported at the weekend that Turnbull “is reaching out to conservative Liberals … offering an enhanced role for Peter Dutton in leadership strategy and preparing to promote a new generation of right-wing MPs”.
It is worth remembering a couple of points. The Coalition nearly lost to Labor, which is on its left. If Turnbull panders too much to the conservatives – to whom he gave ground in the process of becoming leader – he will alienate many ordinary centrist voters.
MacroBusiness on the economic pitfalls without:
Australia’s challenge is not now to just to reform away the fiscal deficit, it is to reform away the current account deficit... The Libs are addressing only half of the “twin deficits” problem and are not doing a very good job of even that. That’s because they know that if they do react to the S&P warning, and cut spending hard, the economic blow back will be immediate and self-defeating as falling growth whacks tax receipts...
(What's needed) is a combined quantitative and qualitative program of budget repair; a voluntary effort to deflate the economy into something much more lean and competitive that can take advantage of the Asian century without plunging itself into ‘recession shock therapy’ or selling its soul on the quiet. It’s primary challenge is rhetorical... (Turnbull) suggested he could bring this agenda to fruition. Alas, he had no backbone for it. Moreover, behind him, the Libs do not appear to have any interest in qualitative budget repair. One thing that is abundantly clear post-election is that the Coalition is welded to tax concessions that support the largest rent seekers in the land...
On the Labor side, Bill Shorten also appears to have no backbone for this fight. Although he took deep qualitative budget reform to the election there was no quantitative effort to go with it... But Labor does still have the policy space to do the right thing... for now we’re going to stumble along the path between recession and dystopia until the former takes over.http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/07/australias-three-choices-recession-reform-or-surrender/
Meanwhile, Reiji Yoshida and Tomohiro Osaki outline that while Abe may be safe politically, his agenda will likely continue to be stalled:
After leading the LDP to large victories in four national elections in a row, Abe faced further stability for his administration in the wake of Sunday’s victory... But Abe is unlikely to try to touch the war-renouncing Article 9, at least for now, experts said, citing persistent reluctance among an apparent majority of voters.
What he might tackle instead is a proposal from pro-revision lawmakers to create an article that gives the prime minister state-of-emergency-like powers in the event of a major contingency such as a big earthquake... By undertaking several constitutional revisions, LDP lawmakers apparently hope the nation will get used to the political processes involved, paving way for revision of Article 9 in the future, critics say.
“If an attempt to revise Article 9 fails, it would make it impossible to restart such a movement for the moment, possibly semipermanently. So (the LDP) will be cautious and try to start with something that can easily win consensus of the nation...” During TV interviews Sunday night, Abe said little about whether he will push for any revision of the constitution.http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/07/11/national/politics-diplomacy/election-strengthens-ldp-as-opposition-flounders/#.V4Kbmldd3N4
Yomiuri editorial:
However, the ruling and opposition parties have been arguing at cross-purposes regarding constitutional amendment throughout the election campaign... In his street campaign speeches, Abe has avoided referring to constitutional amendment. In its election pledge, Komeito did not mention the issue, saying, “Discussions at the Diet [about the matter] have not deepened.”
The opposition camp sought to ensure constitutional amendment was debated as a point of contention. Okada repeatedly argued about this, saying: “Would you permit [the number of pro-amendment upper house members to total] two-thirds [of that chamber]? The ruling parties will bring up the idea of revising Article 9 [of the Constitution] without fail.”
The LDP, which includes constitutional amendment in its party platform, has not even announced a list of priority items regarding that task. The opposition parties have unilaterally called for preventing the revision of Article 9. Both sides have acted unsatisfactorily in addressing the issue.http://www.the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003069176
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