Nanhai Next Steps #SouthChinaSea

Not necessarily what it seems

So far, despite preconceptions, most parties want to tread lightly

Philippines choose a familiar face for their front office man, while they weigh their choices:

Certainly, the Philippines cannot stand up to the military might of China. But with US presence in the region, China will have to think twice before attacking its smaller neighbors. Recall that China did not have the guts to encroach on Philippine waters when the US Seventh Fleet was based in Subic naval base in Zambales while a squadron of modern aircraft was based in Clark Field, Pampanga. The Chinese started creeping up on us after the Senate, in a landmark vote, booted out the Americans from both Subic and Clark. Filipino fishermen who were driven out of their traditional fishing grounds near Scarborough Shoal by Chinese gunboats exalted and started going out to sail, prompting the Duterte government to call for restraint. 

Meanwhile, the name of former President Fidel V. Ramos has cropped up as being considered by President Rodrigo Duterte as special envoy to Beijing. This is a good move. FVR has the stature to patch things up with China if the Chinese leadership is willing to deescalate tension in the region.

We hope FVR does a better job than Senator Antonio Trillanes IV who was tapped by former President Benigno Aquino as special envoy to China at the height of the Scarborough Shoal standoff. Ramos’ hand was rumored to be behind Duterte’s presidential run. Being named special envoy to China would validate that suspicion. Generel Hermogenes Esperon, the Armed Forces chief of staff under Ramos, is now one of the top men in Duterte’s inner circle.

http://thestandard.com.ph/opinion/columns/back-channel-by-alejandro-del-rosario/210754/saving-face-and-its-consequences.html

Philippine diplomacy could proceed in either one of two ways. In the face of pressure from the allies, DU30 could allow himself to be borne by geopolitical currents and play hardball with China, according to the rules drawn by the US, Japan, Australia and the European allies whose interests may not necessarily be the same as those of the Philippines. Or he could follow his own instincts and insert his own game plan into the broad play of the major international powers. One is more complicated than the other, but nonetheless doable and worth doing. 

The first one requires complete docility to our traditional allies. It merely entails a readiness to jump whenever the leader says “jump,” without asking from what floor. Some of our Presidents did not mind performing this number. But this is the opposite of what DU30 would like his presidency to be known for. In his own words, he would like to be a “leftist” President pursuing an “independent foreign policy,” i.e., not dependent on Washington.

The other option requires greater creativity, resolve and skill. This is what DU30 apparently envisions for himself. Thus, despite the Aquino government’s absolute refusal to consider talking directly with Beijing, DU30 has decided to take the bilateral approach even while awaiting the results of arbitration. DU30’s only mistake appears to be his sense of timing—he telegraphed his move days before the release of the ruling. This alerted the US and other allies on what he had in mind, and gave them the time and opportunity to mobilize their arguments against bilateral negotiations.

http://www.manilatimes.net/can-du30-save-chinas-face/273797/


Meanwhile Asean stumbles again - efforts at a joint statement come to naught:

The draft Asean statement called for the full and effective implementation of the 2002 Asean Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea that was signed by Asean and China, and for the early adoption by Asean and China of the Code of Conduct that they are now discussing. 

The source declined to reveal which country or countries objected to the joint statement, but Cambodia, historically one of Beijing's closest allies in Southeast Asia, has publicly expressed opposition to such a move. 

Asean has often been split on issuing joint statements commenting on the South China Sea dispute for fear of antagonising China, which has become an important trade and investment partner for many of them, especially for poorer Indo-Chinese countries which also depend on China for financial aid for infrastructure development.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/1035694/asean-abandons-joint-statement-on-ruling


Speaking of preconceptions, the biggest voice for quiet diplomacy may surprise you:

“What we want is to quiet things down so these issues can be addressed rationally instead of emotionally,” said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private diplomatic messages. 

Some were sent through U.S. embassies abroad and foreign missions in Washington, while others were conveyed directly to top officials by Defense Secretary Ash Carter, Secretary of State John Kerry and other senior officials, the sources said. 

“This is a blanket call for quiet, not some attempt to rally the region against China, which would play into a false narrative that the U.S. is leading a coalition to contain China,” the official added. 

The effort to calm the waters following the court ruling in The Hague on Tuesday suffered a setback when Taiwan dispatched a warship to the area, with President Tsai Ing-wen telling sailors that their mission was to defend Taiwan’s maritime territory.

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003078343