In civil litigation a settlement is often preferred to a judgment. In the aftermath of the Hague award to Manila, nothing is settled
Michael Delizo and Llanesca Panti on next steps under a new Philippine administration:
“The dispute does not end here because the scope of the UN tribunal is very limited to the interpretation of the application of the Unclos—an agreement that provides the rules for establishing a state’s maritime entitlements or delimits certain rights such as the right to explore or exploit the waters called sovereign rights,” Roque told reporters.
“Sovereign rights are not equivalent to full sovereignty or ownership of a state over a land territory or an island. The Unclos does not deal with the question of who owns land territories or islands. The concept of sovereign rights deals only with a state’s right to exploit resources over a defined maritime area, to the exclusion of other states,” he said.
“We have to manage the people’s expectations here and inculcate in our minds that the UN tribunal cannot resolve the sovereignty issue on the Spratly Group of Islands in the West Philippine Sea,” Roque added.
Anthony Kuhn on the depth of sentiment toward Nanhai in China, and how it will continue to motivate extralegal policy:
"By obfuscating and having these forces lurk in the shadows," he argues, "China's trying to have it both ways in a way that doesn't accord with international law."Erickson says there should be no confusion: The militia takes orders from China's military.
"It's high time that the U.S. made statements in advance so that it's clear to everybody that the U.S. is wise to China's game," he says, and that American naval vessels will not be deterred by the militia as they carry out their operations in the South China Sea.When asked to clarify the status of the maritime militias, Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Yang Yujun did not respond directly, saying only that the militia forces engage in fishing and "maritime rights protection" activities in accordance with Chinese law.
The U.S. is not about to give up the strategic dominance it has enjoyed in the western Pacific for the past century or so. And China is no longer content with that arrangement.
Taiwan isn't happy either:
Wu Ping-jui (吳秉叡), secretary general of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's legislative caucus, said the ruling seriously damages Taiwan's interests in the South China Sea and is thus "absolutely unacceptable." "The Republic of China government asserts its sovereignty over Taiping Island" and will definitely not accept the ruling which has "no binding power" in any way on the ROC, Wu said.
Tsai Shih-ying (蔡適應), a DDP legislator in the Legislature's Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, said Taiwan has never been invited to offer its views on this case and the judges have made a unilateral decision, which he said is not binding to Taiwan.
Opposition Kuomintang (KMT) legislative caucus' secretary general, Lin Te-fu (林德福), denounced the ruling as "unfair and unjust," saying Taiwan "absolutely cannot accept" it.
Lin urged President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) to call a national security meeting to reaffirm Taiwan's sovereignty over the South China Sea and to make a trip to Taiping Island in the Spratlys to highlight Taiwan's rightful ownership of the island.http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201607120028.aspx
Ken Moriyasu and Simon Roughneen on the rough road for ASEAN:
Looking ahead, the ANU's Medcalf said the solidarity between the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would be key to persuading China to abide by the ruling. He emphasized that ASEAN "should agree on a collective statement" to call upon China to respect the tribunal award.
However, notable obstacles remain before ASEAN can take concerted action, he admitted. For example, the ruling could put "unbearable pressure on ASEAN solidarity," because China would most likely try hard to influence friendly states such as Cambodia and Laos into obstructing the bloc's from opposition to China's maritime claims. On the other hand, ASEAN ties could strengthen if Indonesia takes a greater leadership role in standing up to China on this issue. The legal support provided by the ruling "gives Indonesia an obvious hook" to stand against China, Medcalf said.
"This will not calm down anything in the South China Sea. Tensions are rising," said Ashley Townshend, a research fellow at the University of Sydney. "This is one of the worst outcomes Beijing could have expected. The law doesn't provide much room for negotiation between China and other claimants going forward."
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