China’s most recent undertaking in the Spratly island chain is not their first – the last 18 months have already seen three reclamation projects. However, at more than 3,000 meters and counting Fiery Cross Reef is their grandest venture yet and appears destined to house an airstrip and harbor, both capable of supporting military hardware. The Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam already operate airstrips in the Spratlys, but can only support smaller, prop-based aircraft.
As it pursues expansion, China has been hesitant to engage in multilateral negotiations and meaningful dialogue on the SCS was relegated to the sidelines at the recent APEC and ASEAN summits. Instead, China – demanding an in-house solution to the convoluted matter – is content to flex its superior political and military might to limited opposition. Reluctant to step on any toes and with its feet in multiple courts, the United States is short on political recourse, and that’s how China likes it.
Though China’s aims are long-term, control of the Spratlies and Paracels is not subsidiary to any prize that may lie beneath. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Asian security concept” calls for Asian solutions to Asian problems and seeks to limit Western influence in such “domestic” affairs. Unchecked dominance in the SCS, whether through direct force or intimidation, would be a remarkable victory in this regard.
And to the victor go the spoils, which in this case are still pretty unclear, a side effect of the conflict itself. The Energy Information Administration estimates the SCS holds approximately 11 billion barrels (bbl) of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. That estimate jumps to as much as 22 bbl of oil and 290 Tcf of natural gas according to a U.S. Geological Survey study. Chinese National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) is perhaps the most optimistic and estimates undiscovered resources of oil and gas in the SCS total 125 bbl and 500 Tcf respectively.
More @ Oilprice.com
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