Role Reversal in Myanmar; Slow Boil of Jihad in Kyrgyzstan; Musudan Muddles Through; Jakarta's Nanhai Stake
"Thailand has taken the recent authoritarian Myanmar model, while they have taken Thailand’s heyday model of the 1980s," said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital research at Kasikornbank Pcl in Bangkok. Myanmar was appealing due to its cheap labor, largely untapped consumer market and abundant natural resources, while in Thailand a lack of policy continuity was scaring off investors, he said.
Both countries are facing a constitutional conundrum, with Suu Kyi’s party campaigning to push the army out of politics and the generals in Thailand seeking voter approval in an August referendum for a draft document that would give them more power. For now Myanmar appears to have reached a working compromise between the army and civilians, while Thailand hasn’t.
"The Myanmar military has succeeded in co-opting Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD into a power-sharing relationship which is superficially democratic, but insulates the Myanmar military from actual civilian control," said Paul Chambers, director of research at the Institute of Southeast Asian Affairs in Chiang Mai. "The Thai generals undoubtedly long for a Myanmar future."
Both the government and society in general failed to see the influence that religion could have on the population of Kyrgyzstan. Most of the population had never (officially) practiced any religion and thus were ill-equipped to judge the influence that religion could have upon themselves, much less their children or even grandchildren. The USSR was officially atheist and prohibited any public expression of or affiliation to religion. Following its collapse, many radicals from across the religious spectrum poured into the former Soviet Union looking to “attract” new members. Such is the start of the Islamization of Kyrgyzstan and the region.
There are more mosques than schools built in the country each year. There has been a marked increase in Arab Islamic fashion seen on the streets (something previously unusual in Kyrgyzstan), especially among young people. The central mosque, which used to be an empty sightseeing spot for tourists, is now packed on Fridays. Men with beards and dressed in Afghan-style clothing knock on the doors of every house offering Islamic teachings. And then there’s the darker side: Reportedly, 500 youth from Kyrgyzstan have joined terrorist groups in Syria.
All this, however, has not happened overnight — the process has been ongoing for the last 25 years. These changes were happening before the eyes of the government and the secular public.
Wednesday's second launch ended a recent run of unsuccessful attempts to test the Musudan missile, which is designed to fly more than 3,000km and could theoretically reach all of Japan and the US territory of Guam.
While failure is potentially embarrassing for Mr Kim, the failed Musudan tests have not been reported in the North's tightly controlled state media, meaning that most North Koreans are in the dark about the programme.
"There's no great political risk to Kim Jong Un's status or reputation, because only a tiny percentage of the population even knows about the tests," Mr Madden said.
Instead, Wednesday's second missile launch in a day and the failures which preceded it may in fact demonstrate Mr Kim's determination to make the technology work, said Mr Yang Uk, a senior researcher at the Korea Defence and Security Forum. "They must have been working extremely hard and to a given time frame in order to make it work," said Mr Yang, who is also a policy adviser to the South Korean military.
Friday's incident was the third altercation between Indonesia and China in waters near Natuna this year. In March, Indonesia lodged an official protest after an Indonesian patrol ship tried to detain a Chinese fishing boat in the Natuna Sea, but was prevented from doing so by the Chinese coastguard.
China's acting charge d'affaires in Jakarta Sun Weide demanded the release of the crew, saying the incident occurred in "traditional Chinese fishing grounds". Sun told press "When it comes to fishery disputes, or maritime issues, China is always ready to work with Indonesia to solve these disputes trough negotiations and dialogue." Unlike other South-east Asian countries, Indonesia is not involved in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. After meeting with Chinese embassy officials on June 20, Indonesia's Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said: "At the meeting we conveyed our strong protest over the breach by the Chinese coastguard of Indonesia's sovereign rights."
Indonesia said it's obvious how much that stability of Natuna is prized among the local population. This island is a picturesque, idyllic place - but it stands on the frontline of a potential clash between Indonesia and China.
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